Novo Nordisk’s Breakthrough Drug Trial Delivers Stunning 19% Weight Loss—Heats Up Rivalry with Eli Lilly

Pharma giant Novo Nordisk just dropped a bombshell clinical result that's shaking up the obesity treatment space.

The headline number? A jaw-dropping 19% weight reduction in their latest trial—putting them squarely in competition with Eli Lilly's rival treatments.

Why it matters: The obesity drug market is exploding, and these two players are sprinting ahead of the pack. Whoever dominates this space stands to rake in billions.

But here's the cynical finance twist: Wall Street's probably already pricing in future revenue streams while actual patients wonder if their insurance will cover it. Typical.

One thing's clear—the race for weight-loss supremacy is officially on. And it's gonna get messy.

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For context, Wegovy is Novo Nordisk’s prescription drug for long-term weight management, using the active ingredient semaglutide, which is also sold as Ozempic for diabetes. Meanwhile, Eli Lilly offers Mounjaro and Zepbound, which use tirzepatide for weight loss.

Novo Nordisk Shows Progress, Yet Trails Eli Lilly

According to Novo’s two late-stage clinical trials, semaglutide showed strong results in testing a 7.2mg dose, well above the current approved 2.4mg dose. In the larger trial, patients lost an average of 19% of their body weight after 72 weeks, compared with 16% on the standard 2.4mg dose and 4% on a placebo.

However, the results were slightly lower than Eli Lilly’s tirzepatide, which achieved up to 22.5% weight loss at its top approved dose.

Still, experts see value in the incremental gains. Remarkably, Naveed Sattar, a professor of metabolic medicine at the University of Glasgow, noted that the extra weight-loss benefit is significant, especially as the cost of high-dose tirzepatide has risen in certain regions. He also pointed out that semaglutide 7.2 mg could offer a more affordable alternative if priced competitively.

Race for Weight-Loss Market Heats Up

The race for the weight-loss drug market is intensifying as Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk compete to capture market share. With recent trial results and new dosing strategies, investors and patients are closely watching how both companies will perform.

Meanwhile, Novo has lost ground in the U.S. to both Lilly and other copycat drugs, and its shares have dropped 60% over the past year. Most recently, Novo announced a major restructuring, reducing its global workforce by 11%, or about 9,000 jobs. Amid these challenges, investors have been hoping that Novo Nordisk WOULD strengthen its pipeline of new obesity drugs, as many view Eli Lilly as offering more options in clinical trials. Even so, the latest data shows that semaglutide can still provide meaningful incremental gains.

LLY or NVO: Which Pharma Stock Offers Higher Upside?

Using the TipRanks Stock Comparison tool, we analyzed NVO and LLY to determine which stock offers greater upside potential, according to analysts.

According to TipRanks, NVO stock carries a Moderate Buy rating, with an average price target of $67.71, implying a 23.4% upside from current levels. Meanwhile, LLY stock holds a Strong Buy rating, supported by 16 Buys and 4 Holds. Eli Lilly’s average price target of $913.69 suggests an upside of 21% potential gain.