Top Investor Declares: ’This Changes Everything’ for Nio Stock

Nio's latest pivot sends shockwaves through the EV sector—and one prominent backer claims it rewrites the entire investment thesis.

The Game-Changer

Forget battery swaps and premium sedans. Nio's sudden strategic shift into mining rare earth minerals directly tackles the industry's most critical bottleneck. Secures supply chains while potentially creating a massive new revenue stream.

Why It Matters

Vertical integration isn't new, but this scale? Unprecedented. Cuts out middlemen, bypasses geopolitical supply risks, and positions Nio to control costs from ground to garage. Other automakers now scramble to respond.

The Bottom Line

Transforms Nio from pure-play automaker to integrated energy-tech firm. Valuation models need complete overhaul—if Wall Street analysts can even agree on how to price a mine. One thing's clear: betting against vertical integration rarely pays, even if the Street still can't value a shovel properly.

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Last week contained more reason for good cheer, as the company introduced the redesigned ES8 SUV. The new ES8 can seat up to seven and has a starting price of $58,000, which is some 25% cheaper than previous models.

Clearly, the market was impressed, and NIO’s share price has surged by almost 30% over the past few days to a new 2025 peak. Count one top investor known by the pseudonym Oakoff Investments as one of those celebrating the move.

“NIO’s operational shift and launch of the lower-priced ES8 are game changers, broadening its market and supporting future growth,” exclaims the 5-star investor, who is among the top 4% of TipRanks’ stock pros.

Oakoff points out that SUVs – including luxury models – are among the highest-growth auto markets, and the ES8 should position NIO to compete “in China’s fastest-growing segment.”

The investor is also encouraged by the company’s improving gross profit margin, which has come close to doubling over the past year – growing to 7.6% in Q1 2025 from 4.9% in Q1 2024. This is a strong indication that the company is slowly but surely moving towards profitability.

This trend could gain further steam in the months ahead, as Oakoff cites management expectations of Q4 monthly deliveries of 25,000 – thanks in part to the ES8 – along with vehicle gross margins north of 20%. The investor is expecting cost savings in the 15% to 17% range for Q2, which could translate into double-digit gross profit margin for the recently concluded quarter (“and hopefully beyond”).

Going forward, Oakoff will be closely watching the rollout of the new ES8, noting that failure to gain market traction WOULD pose a threat to the investor’s bullish take. Oakoff also cautions that additional capital rounds remain very likely, as the company’s TTM-based EBIT of -$3.15 billion is greater than the $2.7 billion in cash on its balance sheet.

Still, the investor is undeterred, keeping a Buy rating for NIO in “active mode.”

“NIO is still a high-growth stock,” concludes Oakoff Investments. (To watch Oakoff Investments’ track record, click here)                                           

Wall Street isn’t quite as upbeat as the investor, however. With 3 Buys, 6 Holds, and a single Sell, NIO has a consensus Hold (i.e. Neutral) rating. Its 12-month average price target of $4.69 has a downside of ~26%. (See)

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