Target (TGT) Q2 Earnings Drop In Hours—Here’s the Make-or-Break Moment for Bulls

Target’s earnings report is about to hit—and the retail giant’s stock could either sprint or stumble. Here’s the lowdown before the numbers drop.

The Setup: Will TGT Beat or Bleed?

Analysts are sharpening their pencils, but Wall Street’s track record for predictions is about as reliable as a meme coin’s whitepaper. Revenue growth, margins, and guidance will dictate whether bulls get a victory lap or another ‘macro headwinds’ excuse.

The Real Question: Can Target Outrun Inflation?

Supply chains are still a mess, consumers are pinching pennies, and discount rivals are circling. If TGT’s numbers show pricing power—watch the shorts scramble.

Closing Thought: Retail’s Pain, Trader’s Gain

Another earnings season, another chance for algos to overreact while long-term holders roll their eyes. Place your bets—just don’t cry when the CFO’s ‘cautious optimism’ tanks the stock 8% in pre-market.

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Ahead of the Q2 earnings, Wall Street is cautious on Target stock, with the average price target indicating a modest downside risk from current levels.

Analysts’ Views Ahead of Target’s Q2 Earnings

Heading into Q2 earnings, Telsey analyst Jason Strominger reiterated a Hold rating on Target stock with a price target of $100. Strominger maintained his Q2 2025 estimates of comparable sales decline of 3.5% and a 14% drop in EPS to $2.22. He also retained his Fiscal 2025 comparable sales outlook of a 2.5% decline and a 13% fall in EPS to $7.71. The analyst explained that his estimates reflect soft consumer spending, mainly on discretionary goods, higher costs, including promotions and investments in labor and technology, and potential tariff pressure.

Strominger also cited negative traffic trends in the second quarter and thinks that Target appears to be losing share to players like Amazon (AMZN), Costco (COST), and Walmart (WMT). He expects these negatives to be partially offset by TGT’s focus on value, loyalty, and strategic initiatives, including those related to private brands, new stores and remodeling, and supply chain enhancements.

On Monday, Evercore ISI analyst Greg Melich added TGT stock to the firm’s “Tactical Outperform” list ahead of Q2 earnings. Melich thinks that the Street’s estimates are “reasonable” and that the company is unlikely to reduce its guidance. The 5-star analyst sees potential for a high single digit to low double digit increase in earnings and near-term upside in TGT stock to $110-$115. Melich has a Hold rating on Target stock with a price target of $108.

Last week, Bank of America Securities analyst Robert Ohmes downgraded Target stock to Sell from Hold and lowered the price target to $93 from $105. The 5-star analyst noted rising longer-term sales and margin risks for the company due to slowing digital sales growth and a lack of scale in digital advertising and third-party marketplace. Ohmes also highlighted elevated tariffs, pricing and merchandising headwinds, and intense competition from Walmart and Amazon.

AI Analyst Is Bullish on Target Stock Ahead of Q2 Print

Interestingly, TipRanks’ AI stock analyst has assigned an Outperform rating to Target stock with a price target of $113, indicating about 7.7% upside potential. TipRanks’ AI analysis noted Target’s stable financial performance with attractive valuation metrics. Notably, TGT’s strategic initiatives in digital growth and operational improvements are promising. However, TipRanks’ AI Analyst also highlighted that challenges such as stagnant revenue growth and consumer confidence pressures weigh on TGT’s outlook.

Here’s What Options Traders Anticipate Ahead of Target’s Q2 Earnings

Using TipRanks’ Options tool, we can see what options traders are expecting from the stock immediately after its earnings report. The expected earnings MOVE is determined by calculating the at-the-money straddle of the options closest to expiration after the earnings announcement. If this sounds complicated, don’t worry, the Options tool does this for you.

Indeed, it currently says that options traders are expecting about a 9% move in either direction in TGT stock in reaction to Q2 results.

Is TGT Stock a Good Buy Now?

Overall, Wall Street has a Hold consensus rating on Target stock based on 12 Buys, 16 Holds, and four Sell recommendations. The average TGT stock price target of $103.28 indicates a downside risk of 1.6% from current levels.