Tesla (TSLA) Q2 Delivery Miss Sparks Analyst Alarm Bells—What’s Next for Elon’s EV Empire?

Tesla’s Q2 delivery numbers just faceplanted—and Wall Street’s hitting the panic button. Here’s why the ‘growth stock’ narrative’s looking shakier than a Cybertruck on potholes.

The bad news buffet

TSLA missed estimates by a country mile, proving even Elon’s hype machine can’t defy gravity forever. Supply chain excuses? Old news. Demand worries? Now we’re talking.

Analysts sharpen their knives

Goldman’s whispering ‘valuation recalibration’ while Morgan Stanley side-eyes those robotaxi promises. Meanwhile, retail bagholders are doing their best impression of ‘diamond hands’ memes.

The crypto connection

Fun fact: TSLA’s 30-day chart now resembles a shitcoin after the dev team abandons the project. At least Bitcoin maximalists get to enjoy the schadenfreude.

Bottom line: When the ‘future of mobility’ starts looking like legacy auto with better PR, maybe it’s time to rethink those 2030 revenue projections. But hey—at least the Boring Company tunnels are… still boring.

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Wall Street Sees Weakness in Tesla’s Q2 Deliveries

Tesla stock has declined about 19% year-to-date due to the company’s weak Q1 results, growing competition in key EV markets, and backlash related to Musk’s political activities.

Analysts expect the slump in Tesla’s deliveries to continue in Q2 2025. UBS analyst Joseph Spak anticipates that demand will remain challenging in the second quarter. He expects Tesla to report Q2 deliveries of 366,000 units, lagging the Street’s estimate by 10%. While Spak suspects that the Q2 performance may not look great, he thinks that the earnings call presents an opportunity for Musk to highlight his future vision. Spak has a Sell rating on TSLA stock with a price target of $215.

Also, Baird analyst Ben Kallo reiterated a Hold rating on Tesla stock with a price target of $320, noting that his 377,000 Q2 delivery estimate is below the FactSet consensus estimate of 392,800. Kallo noted weakness in third-party data through May and the “re-ramping” of new Model Y production, which lingered slightly into the quarter. The analyst contends that while an update on deliveries remains crucial, the recent launch of robotaxi and the excitement around this opportunity might gain more priority. Kallo is worried that the launch of a more affordable vehicle gives rise to a potential risk of net negative margin impact in the second half of 2025.

Previously, Barclays analyst Dan Levy, who also has a Hold rating with a price target of $275, warned investors about Tesla’s Q2 deliveries miss. Levy estimates TSLA’s Q2 2025 deliveries to come in at about 375,000 EVs, well below consensus expectations. Levy’s estimate reflects an 11% decline on a quarter-over-quarter basis and a 16% year-over-year fall. The analyst noted that Tesla’s auto volumes continue to be impacted by tariffs, trade wars, and other macro headwinds. Levy thinks that the launch of a more affordable model by Tesla in the first half of 2025 could be a catalyst for solid volumes in the second half, though he noted a lack of details in this regard.

What Is the Price Target for Tesla Stock?

Overall, Wall Street is sidelined on Tesla stock, with a Hold consensus rating based on 14 Buys, 12 Holds, and nine Sell recommendations. The average TSLA stock price target of $287 indicates 12.4% downside risk from current levels.