Baird Predicts Imminent ‘ChatGPT Moment’ for Robotics—Alphabet Positioned as Prime Catalyst

The robotics revolution just got its marching orders.

Baird analysts are sounding the alarm—or rather, ringing the dinner bell—for what they call an impending 'ChatGPT moment' in robotics. And guess who's setting the table? Alphabet, the $1.7 trillion gorilla that somehow still gets called 'innovative' despite missing every Web3 trend since 2019.

Why now? Three seismic shifts:

1. AI brains are finally spilling into mechanical bodies
2. Cloud infrastructure hits critical mass for real-time processing
3. Venture capitalists need somewhere to park cash after crypto winter froze their NFT portfolios

The real kicker? This isn't about replacing factory workers—it's about creating an entirely new asset class. Think robotic service fleets as tradable securities, maintenance contracts as derivatives, and yes, eventually robot-generated yield farming (because Wall Street won't rest until even toasters are leveraged).

Alphabet's play? Their DeepMind division's been quietly feeding decades of simulation data into next-gen models while Google Cloud undercuts AWS on robotics-as-service pricing. Classic 'lose money to make dominance' strategy—the same playbook that made Android ubiquitous.

One hedge fund manager quipped: 'We're long Alphabet, short human dignity.' The robots may not take all jobs—just the ones that generate carry.

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Yet one area not getting much attention is that of robotics. Having attended last week’s CVPR (Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition) Conference, Baird analyst Colin Sebastian came away believing there’s a significant opportunity emerging – one that investors should start paying closer attention to. “Google/DeepMind are developing a Robotics AI software stack that can power a wide variety of physical form factors through perception, reasoning, and action,” the 5-star analyst explained. “As physical AI inflects, we believe Google is well positioned to be one of the leading robotics AI platforms, tapping into what some estimate will be >$100 billion market opportunity.”

Google showcased its vision for a “broader robotics platform,” built around its Gemini Robotics AI software stack. This system is designed to support a range of physical robots that can understand language, interpret visual input, and carry out complex tasks. Unlike today’s robots, which are typically programmed for specific, repetitive functions, the next generation is expected to be far more intelligent – Sebastian says what’s coming next will be the “’ChatGPT moment’ for robots.”

Such is the opportunity, the analyst believes Google’s Gemini ER (embodied reasoning) could serve as the foundation for widespread adoption of physical AI, potentially opening up a major long-term revenue stream on par with the company’s Android and Cloud platforms.

Importantly, agents powered by Gemini are equipped with “generalist intelligence,” allowing them to adapt to various hardware formats and perform a wide array of tasks. Demonstrations have shown them handling everything from intricate activities like folding origami to practical tasks like locating a pair of glasses. “We believe this represents an important step forward as robots interact in the ‘real world’ without being limited to very specific pre-trained tasks (e.g., loading boxes on a shelf),” Sebastian commented.

OpenAI’s Sam Altman recently suggested that humanoid robots could become a normal part of everyday life within the next five to ten years. With Gemini Robotics, Sebastian thinks Google isn’t just along for the ride – it’s positioning itself as a potential “key enabler” of this shift, going head-to-head with players like OpenAI, Tesla, Amazon, and Meta, among others. “As such,” Sebastian summed up, “we see intelligent robotics as another potential ‘option value’ for Alphabet given the large scale opportunity unlocked from embodied AI, cross-platform agentic models, and a new robotics TAM.”

All that is to say Sebastian maintained an Outperform (i.e., Buy) rating on GOOGL shares along with a $190 price target. There’s potential upside of 9.5% from current levels. (To watch Sebastian’s track record, click here)

Sebastian’s take gets the backing of most of his colleagues; based on a mix of 29 Buys and 9 Holds, the analyst consensus rates the stock a Strong Buy. At $199.11, the average target factors in 12-month returns of 15%. (See Alphabet stock forecast)

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