Canada Strikes Back: Steel & Aluminum Counter-Tariffs Target X, CLF, NUE

Trade tensions escalate as Canada fires the latest salvo in the metals war. Steelmakers brace for impact—while Wall Street shrugs and adjusts its algo parameters.

Here’s what’s unfolding:

The retaliation playbook
Ottawa’s counter-tariffs hit three major players: X (formerly U.S. Steel), Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF), and Nucor (NUE). No percentages disclosed—because why quantify pain when you can keep markets guessing?

Market déjà vu
Remember 2018’s tariff tantrum? This sequel features the same plot: protectionist measures, supply chain chaos, and analysts frantically revising Q3 forecasts. Spoiler alert: middle-market manufacturers get crushed again.

The cynical take
Another day, another excuse for commodities traders to justify volatility. Bonus points when the ‘national security’ card gets played—the geopolitical wildcard that never folds.

One thing’s certain: when governments play chicken with trade policy, steel stocks become bumper cars. Buckle up.

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Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said his government will place tariffs on steel and aluminum products that are “consistent” with U.S. duties that currently sit at 50%. The move will coincide with the end of the 30-day trade deal deadline announced after Carney and U.S. President Donald TRUMP met at a recent G7 meeting.

Prime Minister Carney also said that his government’s procurement policies will favor Canadian suppliers and “reliable trading partners” moving forward. Finally, his government will unleash new, retroactive tariff quota rates at 100% of 2024 levels on imports of steel products from non-free trade agreement countries.

Higher tariffs from Canada are likely to impact major steel producers such as U.S. Steel (X), Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF), and Nucor Corp. (NUE).

Tit-for-Tat

The announcement of more tit-for-tat tariffs comes as Canada’s industrial sector strains under pressure from President Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. Earlier in June, the president hiked existing metals tariffs from 25% to 50% in a MOVE aimed at protecting American workers.

Since the first Trump tariffs were introduced in April, layoffs have risen and investments fallen in Canada’s metals sector, says the Canadian Steel Producers Association, which has previously said that, “At a 50 per cent tariff rate, the U.S. market is effectively closed to Canadian steel.”

Now, Prime Minister Carney says that new counter tariffs unveiled in coming weeks will combat symptoms of “persistent global overcapacity.”

Is CLF Stock a Buy?

Cleveland-Cliffs stock has a consensus Hold rating among eight Wall Street analysts. That rating is based on two Buy, five Hold, and one Sell recommendations issued in the last three months. The average CLF price target of $8.34 implies 13.78% upside from current levels.