3 Economic Landmines That Could Blow Up Your Portfolio This Week

Markets brace for impact as three high-stakes events threaten to shake portfolios June 9-13. Here's what Wall Street isn't telling you.

Inflation data drops Tuesday - will the Fed's 'transitory' narrative finally collapse? (Spoiler: your grocery bill already knows the answer.)

Thursday's jobless claims could expose the dirty secret behind 'record employment' - gig work and three side hustles don't equal economic health.

Friday's consumer sentiment report might reveal whether Main Street finally noticed their 401(k)s got robbed. Bonus cynicism: If history repeats, the big banks will somehow turn your losses into their record profits.

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The week began on a positive note, losing some steam in the second half. The weakness in PMI reports – with the manufacturing activity contracting for a third month in a row and services activity shrinking for the first time in 11 months – infused some gloom. However, Friday saw stocks find their footing again on solid job gains, which allayed fears about an imminent economic downturn.  

U.S. jobs growth stayed strong in May, climbing 139,000 with unemployment unchanged at 4.2%. Although the March and April reports were revised downward, May’s report reassured investors, as it reflected a very gradual cooling of the labor market. Still, diving into the job report’s details, a stronger-than-expected wage growth continues to put a floor under inflation. This supports the Federal Reserve’s “wait and see” stance, despite President Trump’s demands for a cut.    

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the chances of a June cut are nil, and July’s rate decrease looks increasingly improbable.  Prices in interest rate futures markets imply that investors expect two quarter-point rate cuts by year-end, with the first cut not expected until September.  

Three Economic Events

Here are three key economic events that could affect your portfolio this week. For a full listing of additional economic reports, check out the TipRanks Economic Calendar.

and– Wednesday, 06/11 – The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is one of the two key measures of inflation (the other being the Personal Consumption Expenditures index, or PCE). Policymakers, businesses, and consumers closely monitor the CPI report, as it reflects price trends across the economy, shapes consumer spending and business sentiment, and directly influences the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions.

and– Thursday, 06/12 – This report reflects input costs for producers and manufacturers. Since the PPI measures the cost of producing consumer goods – which ultimately affects retail prices – it is viewed as a leading indicator of inflationary pressures. As such, it often foreshadows the following month’s CPI and plays a critical role in shaping inflation expectations among policymakers.

and(preliminary readings) – Friday, 06/13 – These reports summarize consumer confidence and long-term inflation expectations in the U.S. Consumer confidence impacts spending, which accounts for roughly 70% of U.S. GDP. The inflation expectations component is closely monitored by policymakers and is factored into the Federal Reserve’s Index of Inflation Expectations.