Bitcoin’s Critical Indicator Enters Discount Zone - Historic Opportunity or Trap?

Bitcoin's most reliable metric flashes buy signal as it plunges into oversold territory

The Discount Zone Awakens

Market veterans are scrambling as Bitcoin's crucial technical indicator breaches into discount levels not seen since the last major accumulation phase. The metric that accurately predicted previous bull runs now screams opportunity—or danger, depending on your risk appetite.

Institutional Money Watches Closely

While retail investors panic-sell, hedge funds and crypto whales are quietly positioning themselves. The same pattern played out before the 2021 and 2024 rallies, though past performance never guarantees future results—something traditional finance still hasn't learned after centuries of repeating the same mistakes.

Timing the Bottom

History shows these discount zones typically precede massive moves. Whether this time proves different remains the billion-dollar question. Smart money accumulates during fear, while the herd follows momentum. The current setup suggests we're witnessing classic accumulation behavior before the next leg up.

Risk Versus Reward Calculus

Every major crypto cycle has its 'should've bought when' moment. This indicator entering discount territory might just be creating the next one. Or it could be another false signal in an asset class known for crushing over-leveraged dreams. Either way, the charts are talking—are you listening?

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Q3 Misses Expectations

Li Auto reported revenue of RMB 27.4 billion ($3.8 billion) for the quarter, down 39% year-over-year, marking its steepest drop since listing in the U.S. in 2020. The decline was driven by weaker demand, supply chain challenges, and costs tied to the recall of more than 11,000 Mega MPVs after a fire-related safety incident earlier this year.

The company also swung to a loss. Li Auto posted a net loss of RMB 624.4 million ($87.7 million), compared with a profit in the same quarter last year. Rising competition, higher operating costs, and slower deliveries weighed on margins and earnings.

Weak Q4 Outlook Adds Pressure

Looking ahead, Li Auto guided for 100,000 to 110,000 deliveries in Q4 — well below the roughly 135,600 units analysts had anticipated.

Revenue is expected to come in between RMB 26.5 billion and 29.2 billion (approximately $3.7–$4.1 billion), again falling short of consensus forecasts.

This underwhelming forecast suggests the company does not expect any quick rebound and confirms that demand remains weak.

Is Li Auto Stock a Good Buy?

Given the ongoing challenges, Wall Street has a Hold consensus rating on Li Auto stock based on three Buys, seven Holds, and one Sell recommendation. The average LI stock price target of $26.01 indicates 47.37% upside potential from current levels.