Lowe’s Q3 Earnings Imminent: Options Traders Brace for 5.08% LOW Stock Volatility

Earnings season volatility hits home improvement giant as derivatives markets signal significant price movement ahead.

Options Market Positioning

Traders are loading up on both calls and puts ahead of Lowe's quarterly report, creating one of the most anticipated trading sessions in recent retail sector memory. The 5.08% implied move represents millions in potential profit—or loss—for those brave enough to play the earnings lottery.

Retail Sector Under Microscope

With housing markets showing mixed signals and consumer spending patterns shifting, Lowe's performance could serve as a crucial barometer for the broader home improvement industry. Analysts are watching every metric from same-store sales to inventory turnover.

Wall Street's Favorite Casino

Options trading around earnings has become the financial equivalent of high-stakes roulette—except the house always wins on commissions while retail traders chase that elusive 5.08% payout. Another quarter, another round of speculation masquerading as investment strategy.

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Wall Street expects Lowe’s to report earnings per share (EPS) of $2.97, reflecting a 2.8% year-over-year growth. Meanwhile, Q3 net sales are expected to grow 3.3% to $20.83 billion.

Analysts’ Views Ahead of Lowe’s Q3 Earnings

Heading into Q3 earnings, Stifel analyst Andrew Carter slashed the price target for Lowe’s Companies stock to $230 from $275 while reiterating a Hold rating. Carter reduced his estimates for the second half of 2025, Fiscal 2026, and Fiscal 2027 for both Home Depot (HD) and Lowe’s to reflect weakness in the second half of this year and a delayed recovery in the home improvement space. While Carter believes in the long-term prospects of the home improvement category, he contends that “the near-term setup is too challenging to maintain our positive approach.”

Earlier this month, Bernstein analyst Zhihan Ma increased the price target for LOW stock to $282 from $279 and reaffirmed a Buy rating. Ma stated that Lowe’s is his preferred pick over rival Home Depot in the near-to-medium timeframe, as the stock’s valuation multiple is at an all-time high discount to HD.

Furthermore, Ma expects Lowe’s to close its margin gap with Home Depot by cutting costs to offset its capital spending. If the market recovers, Ma expects Lowe’s to bounce back faster than Home Depot as it has more exposure to big-ticket, discretionary items. Nonetheless, the analyst expects that, in the NEAR term, LOW and HD stocks will be more affected by housing macro conditions and inflation/interest-rate expectations than by their own fundamentals.

Is LOW Stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell?

Currently, Wall Street has a Moderate Buy consensus rating on Lowe’s stock based on 16 Buys and eight Hold recommendations. The average LOW stock price target of $284.18 indicates 26.3% upside potential from current levels.