BigBear.ai (BBAI) Q3 Earnings: Brace for a 16% Price Swing as Options Market Goes Wild

BigBear.ai's Q3 earnings report is about to drop—and the options market is screaming volatility. Traders are pricing in a seismic 16% move, up or down. Here's what you need to know.

Why the frenzy? AI stocks have been a rollercoaster this year, and BBAI’s binary event could make or break short-term sentiment. The company’s defense and logistics AI solutions have drawn both hype and skepticism—typical for a sector where ‘disruption’ is promised more often than delivered.

Key things to watch: Cash burn rate, government contract backlog, and any whispers about commercial adoption. The street loves a good AI story… until the numbers don’t back it up.

One thing’s certain: This won’t be boring. Whether you’re a bull or bear, strap in. And remember—when Wall Street prices in a 16% swing, someone’s about to be very wrong (and very mad).

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BigBear.ai has a track record of dramatic price swings following earnings. In March 2025, shares plunged over 20% in a single day after missing revenue expectations. Also, the current implied move is larger than BBAI’s three-year average post-earnings decline of -11.66%.

What to Expect from BBAI’s Q3 Report

Wall Street is forecasting a loss of $0.07 per share on $31.8 million in revenue for the quarter. It must be noted that in the same quarter last year, BBAI reported a Q3 loss of $0.05 per share and revenue of $41.5 million.

At the upcoming report, investors will be looking for updates on BigBear’s backlog conversion, progress in autonomy and biometrics, and signs of stability in its defense pipeline.

Also, traders are watching closely to see whether new contract wins and international expansion can offset ongoing volatility in U.S. federal contracts, particularly with the U.S. Army. 

BBAI stock has soared over 74% in the past six months. While investors are optimistic about the long-term potential of AI solutions in national security, concerns over its consistent financial performance and a clear path to profitability prevail. 

Is BBAI Stock a Good Buy?

Turning to Wall Street, BBAI stock has a Moderate Buy consensus rating based on two Buys and one Hold assigned in the last three months. At $5.83, the average BigBear.ai price target implies 2.82% upside potential.