Goldman Sachs Positions Tesla Stock for Q3 Delivery Showdown - Here’s What Wall Street’s Watching

Wall Street's gearing up for Tesla's quarterly numbers drop—and Goldman Sachs just laid down the markers.

The Setup

Goldman's analysts are circling the delivery figures like hawks. They're not just counting cars—they're tracking factory output, supply chain bottlenecks, and that elusive demand pulse everyone's trying to measure.

The Stakes

Q3 deliveries could make or break the stock's momentum heading into year-end. Production targets matter, but the real game is whether Tesla can maintain its premium valuation in an increasingly crowded EV space.

The Reality Check

Let's be real—Wall Street's 'analysis' often boils down to educated guesswork with fancy charts. Because nothing says financial insight like waiting for quarterly numbers to confirm what everyone already suspected.

Bottom line: Tesla's delivery report isn't just about cars—it's about narrative control in a market that trades on hype as much as horsepower.

Elevate Your Investing Strategy:

• Take advantage of TipRanks Premium at 55% off! Unlock powerful investing tools, advanced data, and expert analyst insights to help you invest with confidence.

In fact, Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Delaney now believes consensus estimates are too low and has raised his volume forecasts for both 3Q25 and 4Q25.

Delaney’s revised outlook is grounded in alternative data gathered with the GS Data Works team, including app download trends and global consumer survey insights. Based on this analysis, the analyst now anticipates 455,000 units in Q3 (up from 430,000 previously and above the Visible Alpha consensus estimate of 439,000) and 450,000 units in Q4 (up from 443,000 earlier and ahead of the 441,000 consensus).

“We attribute the better 2H volumes in part to the recent Model Y L launch, in part based on somewhat better consumer survey data, and in part with IRA EV purchase credits set to expire on 9/30/25,” explained Delaney, who ranks among the top 3% of Wall Street stock experts.

The analyst’s 2026 estimate remains unchanged at 1.865 million units, in line with consensus. Delaney expects growth from new models will be partially offset by factors such as increased competition – particularly in Europe and China – and the expiration of IRA EV purchase credits beginning in 4Q25.

Tesla shares have been on a strong run recently, gaining 22% over the past month – a MOVE Delaney attributes to several factors. These include the recently announced incentive plan for CEO Elon Musk, which could grant him up to an additional 12% stake in Tesla, valued at ~$1 trillion if the company achieves certain market cap and operational milestones. Delaney believes this is being viewed positively by investors, given Tesla’s strong performance following the 2018 plan. Additional drivers include Musk’s purchase of around $1 billion in stock on September 12 and stronger delivery momentum in the third quarter.

While Delaney remains on the sidelines for now with a Neutral rating, given the broader rise in market multiples, the growth rate Tesla can attain over the long term, and some upward revisions to forward EPS estimates, Delaney has raised his price target from $300 to $395. Still, that figure sits 10% below the current share price.

“If Tesla can have outsized share in areas such as humanoid robotics and autonomy, then there could be upside to our price target, although if competition limits profits (as is happening with the ADAS market in China) or Tesla does not execute well, then there could be downside,” the 5-star analyst further said. (To watch Delaney’s track record, click here)

TSLA stock also gets a Hold rating from the analyst consensus, based on a mix of 12 Holds, 14 Buys, plus 8 Sells. Going by the $341.10 average price target, the shares have now overshot by ~23%. (See)

To find good ideas for stocks trading at attractive valuations, visit TipRanks’ Best Stocks to Buy, a tool that unites all of TipRanks’ equity insights.