Apple’s iPhone 17: How Rock-Bottom Expectations Are Fueling the Stock’s Surprising Rally

Wall Street's iPhone pessimism creates the perfect setup for Apple's next act.

The Low Bar Advantage

Analysts have set expectations so low for iPhone 17 that even modest success could trigger significant upside. When everyone anticipates disappointment, beating those expectations becomes remarkably easier—and the market rewards that surprise factor disproportionately.

Reverse Psychology in Action

Apple's stock historically thrives when skepticism runs highest. The current climate of tempered forecasts removes the pressure for groundbreaking innovation, allowing incremental improvements to shine. It's the classic 'underpromise and overdeliver' strategy playing out on a billion-dollar scale.

The Cynical Truth

Sometimes the best investment thesis isn't about revolutionary technology—it's about understanding how low expectations can become your greatest asset. In a market that often confuses hype with value, Apple's subdued iPhone 17 narrative might just be the smartest contrarian play available.

Key Takeaways

• Wedbush analysts raised their price target for Apple's stock over the weekend, pointing to signs of stronger-than-expected demand for the iPhone 17.
• "The Street is clearly underestimating this iPhone cycle,” the analysts said, after a launch that raised worries among analysts that many consumers could wait for bigger design changes and AI features.
• Wedbush said the stock could also stand to get a big bump when Apple releases more details on its artificial intelligence strategy.

Apple’s iPhone 17 is turning some heads on Wall Street with signs of surprisingly strong demand, after a lackluster launch.

Shares of the stock were up more than 3% at around $254 Monday afternoon, after Wedbush analysts led by longterm Apple (AAPL) bull Dan Ives raised their price target to a new street high of $310 from $270, pointing to signs of better-than-expected demand.

"Heading into this iPhone 17 cycle we were expecting this upgrade cycle to be a good, but not great one," the analysts told clients in a Sunday note, amid some worries consumers waiting for bigger design changes and delayed AI features could hold back demand.

However, “we are positively surprised," the analysts said, with their checks indicating the iPhone 17 "tracking 10%-15% ahead of iPhone 16 so far.” The "Street is clearly underestimating this iPhone cycle," they said, with muted expectations helping fuel enthusiasm for the stock.

The AI 'Elephant in the Room'

Still, many investors are waiting for more from Apple on its artificial intelligence strategy, Wedbush said, calling it the "elephant in the room."

"The time is now for Apple to accelerate its AI efforts through outside partnerships," Wedbush said, expecting the stock could get another big boost if Apple offers more details on AI.

Bank of America analysts, who reiterated a "buy" rating and $270 price target for Apple's stock Monday, said they expect Apple still has the potential to become an AI leader, despite worries it's lagged many of its Big Tech peers.

With Monday's gains, shares of Apple moved back into positive territory for the year.