Carvana Earnings Drop Today: Here’s Exactly How Wild the Stock Swing Could Get

Brace for impact. Carvana's quarterly numbers hit the tape later—and the options market is pricing in a seismic move.

The Volatility Playbook

Forget steady growth charts. Traders are betting on chaos, with implied volatility screaming through the roof. The expected price swing isn't a suggestion; it's a forecast of pure market adrenaline.

Earnings as a Catalyst, Not a Report

This isn't about revenue figures meeting some analyst's spreadsheet model. It's a binary event: beat or miss, survive or thrive. The stock doesn't trade on fundamentals today—it trades on the gap between expectation and reality.

The Aftermath

Win or lose, the real action starts after the bell. The move gets digested, positions get liquidated, and the narrative gets rewritten by whoever shouts loudest on financial TV—classic post-earnings theater, where a single decimal point can trigger more drama than a season finale.

Key Takeaways

• Carvana is slated to report fourth-quarter earnings after the closing bell today, with traders expecting a big move in the used car dealer's stock following the results.
• Analysts are widely bullish on the used car seller's stock, despite its recent slide in the wake of a short-seller report critical of the company's finances.

Carvana is set to report earnings after the market closes today, with traders expecting a big MOVE in the online used car dealer's stock following the results.

Based on recent options pricing, traders expect Carvana's (CVNA) stock could swing up to 13.5% in either direction by the end of the week. A move of that magnitude from Tuesday's close near $351 WOULD lift Carvana shares to about $398. The low end of the range would see the stock slip below $304, its lowest point since last November.

Carvana has had a difficult start to 2026, as a short-seller report released last month sent the stock tumbling from its record highs. Carvana stock had rallied to end 2025 as it joined the S&P 500 and analysts laid out bullish visions for the company.

Why This Matters to Investors

Carvana has become one of the leading used-car marketplaces in the U.S., sending its stock to record highs in January. However, its stock has taken a hit recently in the wake of a critical short-seller report.

JPMorgan analysts said the basis of the short-seller report appeared to include an incorrect reading of some of Carvana's finances by the authors, leading to a "significant misrepresentation of facts." The analysts recently lifted their price target for Carvana to $510 from $490, and said they expect the company to report strong sales growth for the fourth quarter that could carry through to the first quarter of 2026.

Carvana is projected to report a 48% year-over-year jump in revenue to $5.25 billion, while earnings per share are seen rising to $1.01 from 56 cents the same time a year ago.

Related Education

Analysts have stayed bullish on Carvana stock despite the recent slump, with 12 of the 13 analysts with current ratings tracked by Visible Alpha calling the company a "buy," with just one "hold" rating. Their mean target of $500 would suggest 40% upside from Tuesday's close.

The shares, which were up about 4% in recent trading ahead of the company's earnings report, have lost about 15% since the start of the year.