Market Storm Brewing: Walmart Earnings, Inflation Data, Q4 GDP & Presidents Day Holiday Collide This Week

Hold onto your portfolios—this week's economic calendar is a perfect storm of market-moving events.

Inflation's Last Stand?

Fresh inflation data hits the tape, giving traders another pulse check on the Fed's favorite villain. Will it be the usual 'transitory' narrative or a nasty surprise that sends shockwaves through risk assets? The numbers don't lie, but the spin doctors are always on standby.

Walmart's Consumer Thermometer

Walmart earnings drop, serving as a real-time biopsy of the American consumer. Are wallets still open, or is the squeeze finally on? The retail giant's results often cut through the economic noise with brutal clarity.

The GDP Finale

The Q4 GDP number gets its final revision. It's the backward-looking metric everyone pretends to care about—a ceremonial confirmation of what we already lived through. Still, the market loves a good ritual.

Housing & Trade: The Supporting Cast

Housing and trade data round out the week, offering more puzzle pieces for the 'soft landing' versus 'recession' debate. Both sectors are flashing warning signs that Wall Street conveniently ignores when stocks are green.

Presidents Day Pause

A mid-week holiday throws a wrench in the trading flow, creating a compressed schedule for panic or euphoria. Because nothing says 'market stability' like a forced break amid high volatility.

Get ready for a week where every data point is a Rorschach test for bulls and bears. Just remember—in modern finance, the narrative often matters more than the number. (Bonus jab: The only inflation hedge that's working lately is cynicism.)

PCE Inflation, Q4 GDP Lead Data Releases

Investors will get another look at December inflation with Friday’s release of the PCE report. Inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index remained unchanged in December, ad the PCE report is closely followed by the Federal Reserve, meaning its pricing data could influence how officials view the path of interest rates. The minutes for the January meeting of the Federal Reserve are also likely to provide insight into officials’ views on the state of the economy.

Investors will get their first look at economic growth measurements for the fourth quarter with the Thursday release of GDP. It comes after the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported strong economic growth in the third quarter, with its final revisions coming in at 4.4%. 

New home sales and housing starts data for both November and December are scheduled for release this week, and pending home sales for January will provide a forward-looking indicator for the housing market. Two reports on U.S. international trade are also due this week, while durable-goods orders for December can offer insight into the health of the manufacturing sector. 

Walmart Earnings First Under New CEO; 13F Watch Starts

Walmart is set to issue its first earnings report under new CEO John Furner. The retailer recently hit $1 trillion in market capitalization, making it the first big box store to reach that size. In its last report, Walmart posted a 4.2% increase in comparable sales and raised its full-year sales forecast.

Farm equipment Maker John Deere's report follows a warning that its annual net income would come in lower than expectations as it faced difficult market conditions. Deere’s results can serve as a market indicator for the agricultural and industrial sectors. Tech firms on the reporting calendar include including chipmaker Analog Devices, cybersecurity firm Palo Alto Networks, and chip design software maker Cadence Design. 

Meanwhile, the quarterly 13F fillings that detail the holdings and transactions of Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A, BRK.B) and other big investors are expected to start showing up this week, illustrating fourth-quarter porfolio changes. Big moves by Berkshire WOULD be considered some of the last under Warren Buffett.

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This Week’s Calendar

• Markets closed for Presidents Day holiday
• Federal Reserve Officials Speaking: Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman

• Empire State manufacturing (February)
• Federal Reserve Officials Speaking: Fed Governor Michael Barr, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly
• Key Earnings: Medtronics (MDT), Palo Alto Networks (PANW), Cadence Design (CDNS), Kenvue (KVUE)
  

• Housing starts (December, November)
• More Data to Watch: Durable-goods orders (December), January Federal Reserve meeting minutes 
• Federal Reserve Officials Speaking: Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman
• Key Earnings: Analog Devices (ADI), Booking Holdings (BKNG), Carvana (CVNA), Moody’s (MCO), DoorDash (DASH), Occidental Petroleum (OXY)
  

• U.S. trade deficit (December)
• More Data to Watch: Initial jobless claims (Week ending Feb. 14), U.S. trade balance (December), Retail inventories (December), Wholesale inventories (December), Philadelphia Fed manufacturing (February), Pending home sales (January)
• Federal Reserve Officials Speaking: Federal Reserve Officials Speaking: Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari
• Key Earnings: Walmart (WMT), Deere & Co (DE), Newmont (NEM), Southern (SO)

• Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index (December)
• More Data to Watch: Gross Domestic Product - first reading (Q4), S&P flash Purchasing Manager Index (February), New home sales (December, November), Consumer sentiment - final (February)
• Federal Reserve Officials Speaking: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic

One More Thing

If you’re in your 50s, do you need to start buying bonds? Not necessarily, writes Investopedia’s Trina Paul, who has more here on how your investing strategy can shift with age.