San Francisco Housing Data: Are We Finally Hitting the Peak?

San Francisco's latest housing metrics just dropped—and they're flashing warning signs that could signal a major inflection point. After years of relentless climbs, the city's property market is showing cracks that even the most bullish realtors can't spin.

The Data Doesn't Lie

Inventory's creeping up while days-on-market stretch longer. Price cuts are appearing like weeds in a manicured lawn—subtle at first, then everywhere you look. Mortgage rates aren't helping, squeezing buyers who already needed tech IPO money just to qualify.

Tech Exodus Echoes

Remote work solidified, and suddenly that $3 million shoebox doesn't pencil out. Why pay premium zip-code prices when your office is a laptop in Tahoe? The city's core demand engine—high-paid tech workers—isn't just hybrid; it's geographically agnostic.

The Psychology Shift

Bidding wars feel like ancient history. Sellers still quote 2025 comps while buyers smirk and lowball. That collective FOMO that fueled 20% over-asks? Replaced by a cautious, almost cynical, wait-and-see.

Not a Crash—A Correction

Don't expect firesales. San Francisco's land constraints and desirability buffer a freefall. But the era of effortless, double-digit annual appreciation? That chapter might be closing. We're entering a phase where location, quality, and actual livability dictate value—not just speculative scarcity.

The peak isn't always a dramatic cliff. Sometimes it's a rolling hilltop where the air gets thin, the view stops improving, and everyone quietly wonders if the only way left is down. After all, in finance, what goes up must come down—unless you're talking about fund manager fees, those only ever go up.

Key Takeaways

• Housing costs in 99% of U.S. counties remain above their historical averages, according to a report from real estate data firm ATTOM.
• San Francisco is a rare exception: Despite a $1.4 million median home price, the city is now more affordable, historically speaking, because local wages have risen faster than housing costs.
• Nationally, 86% of counties saw affordability improve in the fourth quarter of 2025 over the previous quarter, a sign that the market may be stabilizing.

Is the housing market on the verge of a turnaround? Data from one of the country's most expensive markets suggest the affordability crisis may have peaked.

A new report from real estate data firm ATTOM found that in all but eight of 594 U.S. counties, median-priced homes in the fourth quarter were less affordable than their historical averages. San Francisco was among the exceptions.

Despite a median price of $1.4 million, wages in the city have risen enough that buying a home now consumes a smaller share of income than it has historically.

Buying a home in San Francisco still requires about 50% of the median income—well above what experts recommend—but that's down from a historical average of 59% and far below the 84% it took in 2006, according to ATTOM's data.

Why This Matters to You

Improving affordability means lower monthly payments and more breathing room for buyers who've been priced out. If the trend continues, it could also bring more homes onto the market as current owners feel less trapped by their low-rate mortgages.

Nearby San Mateo County also improved in housing affordability. Other counties where housing affordability was better in the fourth quarter than its historic trend included Mobile County, Alabama; Kanawha County, West Virginia; and Fayette County, Pennsylvania.

Housing affordability across the nation remains a significant problem due to high borrowing costs and housing prices.

Affordability Improving Across the U.S.

While only a handful of U.S. counties were more affordable than their historic average, 86% of U.S. counties grew more affordable over the previous quarter, according to ATTOM, showing some relief on prices in the housing market.

“Modest, quarter-over-quarter affordability improvements in many markets at the end of the year offered some encouragement,” said Rob Barber, CEO of ATTOM. “Over the past five years, home price growth has nearly doubled wage growth, meaning homebuying power in 2026 will depend not only on whether prices level off or decline, but also on mortgage rates and broader economic conditions.”

Related Education

Still, affordability remains a central issue in the housing market. In nearly 75% of counties, including San Francisco, buying a home costs more than the recommended 28% of income.