Return Season Hits: Got a Pile of Unwanted Stuff to Send Back? You’re Not Alone

The post-holiday avalanche of returns kicks into high gear—and this year's numbers are staggering.

The Logistics Nightmare

Warehouses buckle under the reverse flow. Delivery networks, just catching their breath from the December rush, now face a tsunami of inbound packages. It's a brutal operational pivot that cuts into razor-thin retail margins.

The Consumer's Hidden Cost

Free returns aren't free. The cost gets baked into prices for everyone—a clever bit of financial redistribution that would make a central banker proud. Meanwhile, mountains of 'unwanted stuff' pile up, a monument to impulsive buying and algorithmic persuasion.

A Broken Model?

The system strains at the seams. Some brands quietly tighten policies or tack on fees, trying to stem the bleeding. Others see it as the cost of doing digital business—a necessary evil to keep the conversion engine humming.

It's a seasonal ritual of waste and friction, perfectly optimized for the digital age. Just remember, someone's always paying. Usually, it's you.

Key Takeaways

• Returns tend to rise during the last days of December, and Adobe Analytics data suggests the spike may be even pronounced this year.
• Companies on average expect 16% of their 2025 sales to be returned, according to one survey.

Gather up the itchy socks and unwanted accessories. It's return season. 

Returns tend to rise during the last days of December, and Adobe Analytics data suggests the spike may be even pronounced this year. Returns this month were running about 2.5% below where they were midway through the holiday season in 2024, according to Adobe, which analyzed millions of online transactions—so we're either getting better at selecting presents, or slower at sending back unwanted stuff.

It's likely the latter, according to Schorr Packaging, a shipping material and services firm that called returns "practically a holiday tradition." Half of shoppers return gifts within a week, while roughly another quarter do so within two or three weeks, according to consumer surveys Schorr conducted.

Why This Matters to You

Shoppers have grown accustomed to flexible and generous return policies post-COVID, but some merchants are cracking down a bit, requiring more work or expense on the part of shoppers who seek to send stuff back. Many Americans are choosing in-store returns, perhaps as a way to avoid a perceived hassle.

The rise of online shopping—and expansion of flexible return policies during the pandemic—have contributed to higher return rates, the National Retail Federation trade group said. Companies on average expect 16% of their 2025 sales to be returned, according to the NRF and Happy Returns, a UPS company that facilitates returns. That’s down slightly from last year, but double the 8% return rate in 2019, the groups said.

Despite the growth of e-commerce, many Americans take a traditional approach to returns. Bringing unwanted items back to a store is the most common return tactic, according to Schorr, ahead of using third-party drop-off sites and mailing back products.

Returns are a big expense for retailers and often amount to about 60% of an item’s cost, according to Simone Peinkofer, an assistant professor of supply chain management at Michigan State University. The expense may come from paying staff to open, inspect and restock the item, or offloading it to liquidators, off-price retailers and other resellers. Returned items and their packaging often end up in landfills, generating billions of pounds of waste, Peinkofer said.

Related Education

A growing number of retailers are charging shoppers to facilitate returns. Kohl’s (KSS) applies a 15% restocking fee when it takes certain large items, and a handful of companies, including Macy's (M) and Urban Outfitters (URBN), charge shipping or other fees on items returned through the mail, according to their websites.

The fees help retailers recoup costs and deter the roughly 9% of returns believed to be fraudulent, NRF said. More than 7 in 10 retailers now charge for at least one type of return, up from 66% in 2024, NRF said.

But they're also unpopular, perhaps predictably. “While some retailers report benefits [from return fees] such as lower return volumes or more exchanges, many also acknowledge an increase in customer complaints, indicating dissatisfaction with the return experience as a whole,” NRF said.