Fed Minutes, Tariff Bombshells & Gold’s Make-or-Break Moment: Your Week Ahead

Markets brace for impact as the Fed's playbook gets cracked open—will Powell's puppeteers hint at rate cuts or double down on inflation combat?

Tariff tremors incoming: Trade war aftershocks could send shockwaves through equities. Meanwhile, gold flirts with technical do-or-die levels—bulls and bears locked in a gladiator match.

Bonus cynicism: Because nothing says 'stable economy' like parsing central banker hieroglyphics while tariffs play whack-a-mole with your portfolio.

Federal Reserve Minutes: Dovish Cues or Delay Realities?

The Fed minutes are expected to elaborate on policy projections and inflation trends. Markets are speculating more on a September rate cut, not July, with futures pricing in only two quarter-point reductions by year-end. 

Powell has emphasized a “wait-and-see” approach, particularly concerning tariffs’ impact on prices. 

Key technical watchpoints: Gold trading just below its 50‑day simple moving average at $3,311. A decisive break below could expose a slide toward $3,300 or even $3,248, while a dovish surprise might reenergize bulls.

Tariff Deadline & Trade Risk: Safe‑Haven or Relief Trades?

Uncertainty around the July 9 deadline for Trump’s 90‑day tariff reprieve is a key driver. As of July 1, spot gold ROSE 0.6% to $3,322.55 amid fears tariffs (10–50%) may be reinstated. 

Conversely, fresh trade deals or an extension lifted gold to $3,311 on July 7, showing market sensitivity to Washington’s signals. 

This means tariff developments in the coming days could be the wildcard—sparking either a safe-haven rally above $3,336 or a slide if a settlement is reached.

Technical Wrap & Key Levels For Gold

Gold remains tightly ranged between significant moving averages, with the RSI weakening, signaling consolidation. Expect resistance near $3,350–$3,360, and crucial support zones at $3,300 and $3,248 if bearish momentum resumes.

Gold Conclusion

Gold’s path this week hinges on two factors: whether the Fed minutes flag persistent inflation risks or tariff pressures, and how the July 9 trade deadline resolves. 

Those will likely determine if gold breaks higher above $3,360 or slips toward the $3,300 basin. So,  if you are looking to invest in gold, keep eyes on catalysts—and the charts—for a clearer signal.

Best Gold Trading Platform for Intermediate Traders and Investors

Invest in gold and 3,000+ other assets including stocks and cryptocurrenncy.

0% commission on stocks - buy in bulk or just a fraction from as little as $10. Other fees apply. For more information, visit etoro.com/trading/fees.

Copy top-performing traders in real time, automatically.

eToro USA is registered with FINRA for securities trading.

Users worldwide

Our most recent alerts – instantly accessible

• The Two Only Silver Charts That Matter In 2025 (July 6)
• Quarterly Gold & Silver Charts Are In, Here’s the Big Picture (June 29)
• Gold & Silver – The Big Picture Charts That Matter (June 21)
• Gold & Silver Shine but Not Simultaneously… The Market Loves To Confuse Investors (June 15)
• Silver On Its Way To 50 USD/oz (June 8)
• Precious Metals: The Long-Term Outlook Looks Profitable, Here Is Why (May 31)
• [Must-Read] Spot Silver – This Is What The Charts Suggest (May 24)

Unlock Premium Market Insights