Polymarket Users Place Bold Bets on 2025 US Government Shutdown

Prediction markets are wagering on Washington's dysfunction—and the stakes just got real.

While politicians debate budgets, crypto traders are putting money where their skepticism lies. Polymarket contracts tracking a potential 2025 government shutdown are seeing unprecedented volume as deadline pressures mount.

The Mechanics Behind the Bets

These aren't your grandfather's political predictions. Smart contracts automatically payout based on real-world outcomes—no partisan committees required. Traders can go long on chaos or short on stability, with every percentage point reflecting collective intelligence.

Why This Matters Beyond Politics

When traditional forecasting fails, decentralized markets step in. The platform's liquidity pool shows millions riding on legislative gridlock—proving once again that where there's uncertainty, there's opportunity. Some traders even hedge their tax liabilities against the very government they're betting against.

As one anonymous whale put it: 'Congress might not pass spending bills, but they're great at creating trading opportunities.' Because nothing says financial innovation like profiting from institutional failure.

According to Bloomberg, on 19 September, the Senate blocked both versions of the temporary funding plan — neither the Republican nor the Democratic versions received the required number of votes. After that, senators went on recess until 29 September, further increasing the risk of a shutdown.

President Donald TRUMP explicitly acknowledged the possibility of a government shutdown:

“We’ll continue to talk to the Democrats but I think you could very well end up with a closed country for a period of time,” he said at the Oval Office.

Earlier, he also blamed the Democrats, saying they “want to close the country”.

Meanwhile, at the time of publication, 64% of the platform’s users were betting on a government shutdown by 1 October.

The political conflict centers on healthcare spending. Democrats are demanding additional funding and are proposing a $1.5 trillion bill that includes $350 billion to extend Obamacare tax subsidies and restore Medicaid funding.

Republicans, on the other hand, insist on a “clean” short-term solution with no new spending until 21 November.

“The choice is pretty clear. It’s going to be funding the government through a clean, short-term continuing resolution or it’s going to be a government shutdown. That’s the choice Democrats have,” said Senate Republican Majority Leader John Thune.

Financial markets are still reacting with restraint, considering the possible shutdown to be another round of political bargaining in Washington. This time, however, the positions of the parties are much tougher, so the risk of both the government shutdown itself and its protracted nature is growing, the publication said.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is currently trading at $111,541, according to TradingView at the time of writing.

Nevertheless, the market correction led to the liquidation of traders on futures contracts worth $400 million per day.

On 17 September, the US Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 0.25% from December 2024, which had a positive impact on the crypto market.

Сообщение Polymarket users bet on the US government shutdown in 2025 появились сначала на INCRYPTED.