Could BigBear.ai Stock Actually Make You a Millionaire? Here’s the 2025 Reality Check

AI stocks are rewriting retirement plans—but is BigBear.ai the golden ticket or just another hype train?

Market analysts are split on whether this AI player delivers real value or just excels at burning cash. The company's defense and intelligence contracts generate steady revenue, yet profitability remains elusive.

Retirement dreams demand more than buzzwords. BigBear.ai's volatility mirrors crypto's wild swings—thrilling for traders, terrifying for retirees. The stock either moonshots or crashes harder than a DeFi protocol during a market correction.

Remember: every 'next big thing' claims it'll make millionaires. Most don't. If you're betting your retirement on a single stock, you might as well YOLO into memecoins and hope for the best.

Image source: Getty Images.

Why BigBear.ai stock is soaring

There's a lot of Optimism among investors right now surrounding artificial intelligence stocks, as companies and governments invest in AI data center infrastructure and increase their use of AI software. One way BigBear.ai is tapping into this demand is by offering AI logistics and analytics, which can improve the efficiency of everything from supply chains to national security.

Management says the company's total addressable market was $80 billion in 2024, but it forecasts that it could grow to $272 billion by 2028 for the combined private and public sectors. Part of the enthusiasm for the company's shares comes as the U.S increases its spending on AI defense, a market that could be worth up to $70 billion by the mid-2030s. BigBear.ai makes a "significant portion" of its revenue from government contracts, and AI defense is an important component of its potential.

Also, because AI stock enthusiasm is sky high right now, BigBear.ai has at times surged for no obvious reason. Case in point: Last week, after trending down over a period of a couple of months, it jumped by more than 10% in a single session on no news at all.

Why BigBear.ai won't help you retire a millionaire

If the good news is that BigBear.ai's stock has made impressive gains over the past year (albeit quite bumpy ones), the bad news is that the company has little to show in the way of growth. Revenue fell 18% year over year to $32.5 million in Q2, following another decline in Q1.

With sales slipping, management recently cut its revenue guidance for the year to about $132 million -- 22% lower than the midpoint of its previous forecast. Lower sales volumes from some government contracts were the problem during the quarter, but upon closer inspection of the details, BigBear.ai's situation doesn't look much better.

The company's gross margins slid to 25% in the quarter, down from nearly 28% in the year-ago period. That continued a pattern of inconsistency over the past year. Worse, BigBear.ai is nowhere NEAR profitable. Its non-GAAP (adjusted) earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) came to a loss of $8.5 million in the quarter, significantly worse than its adjusted loss of $3.7 million in Q2 2024.

The picture that should be coming into focus here is that BigBear.ai isn't much of a growth stock. A temporary slowdown in business could be forgivable, but that's not happening with the company. Instead, its sales continue to slide, and its losses are widening.

With all that in mind, I have serious doubts that BigBear.ai stock could grow from here in a way that WOULD help its shareholders retire as millionaires. The stock is riding the AI wave right now, but financial reality will eventually catch up with it.