If You’d Invested $500 in Palantir Stock (PLTR) 5 Years Ago, Here’s How Much You’d Have Today

Palantir's wild ride delivers staggering returns for early believers—and reminds Wall Street analysts why timing beats crystal balls every time.

From data-mining mystery to market darling

Five years back, Palantir operated in near-stealth mode—government contracts, black-box algorithms, and Peter Thiel's Midas touch driving speculation. Today? The curtain's pulled back, revealing a company that's cracked the commercial code while keeping its defense roots intact.

The math that silences skeptics

That initial $500 stake now dwarfs most traditional investments—outpacing crypto's flashiest tokens and leaving blue-chip stocks eating dust. Palantir's pivot to AI-driven analytics fueled a revenue rocket most companies only dream of launching.

Why fundamentals finally caught up with the hype

Commercial contracts exploded, government work expanded, and suddenly those 'spooky' data tools became enterprise must-haves. The stock's volatility? Just noise against a backdrop of relentless execution and market domination.

Wall Street's favorite new reality: sometimes the 'overvalued' disruptors actually disrupt

While analysts debated price targets, Palantir kept signing Fortune 500 clients and upgrading its tech stack. The result? A lesson in why betting against innovation usually costs more than betting on it—even if the PE ratio makes accountants sweat.

PLTR data by YCharts

As strong as Palantir's run has been, I think investors are getting ahead of themselves. There's no question the company is executing well and creating real value, but by any objective measure, the stock is overpriced. It's trading at nearly 115 times sales -- an eye-popping figure that makes it almost seven times more expensive than OpenAI would be if it were public at its latest $500 billion valuation.

Image source: Getty Images

Yes, Palantir is profitable while OpenAI is not, and that matters. But if you look at earnings, the picture is just as extreme. The stock trades at roughly 510 times earnings, a number that simply isn't sustainable. At today's price, I can't recommend the stock. Eventually, it should come down to a more rational level, and I believe that will be far lower than where it trades now.