Where Will Opendoor Stock Be in 5 Years? The Shocking Truth Revealed
Opendoor's stock trajectory faces its ultimate test as traditional real estate models collide with algorithmic disruption.
The iBuying Revolution—Or Implosion?
Five years from now, either we're looking at a real estate market transformed by instant offers and digital transactions—or another cautionary tale about scaling too fast, too soon. The company's entire premise hinges on perfecting the art of pricing homes algorithmically while managing renovation costs and market volatility.
Market Forces Don't Care About Your Spreadsheet
Housing cycles crush even the smartest models. Interest rate swings, regional bubbles, and unexpected economic shocks could turn Opendoor's inventory into anchors instead of assets. They're essentially making leveraged bets on American suburbs—what could possibly go wrong?
The Bull Case: Dominating a $2 Trillion Market
If execution nails it, Opendoor becomes the default for hassle-free transactions. They capture value at both ends—service fees and spread—while building a data moat that traditional brokers can't match. The upside? Potentially capturing just 5% of the existing home market would justify multiples of today's valuation.
Wall Street's already placing bets—some seeing a path to triple-digit prices, others predicting single-digit oblivion. Because nothing says 'solid investment' like a business that buys illiquid assets with debt during uncertain times.
Image source: Getty Images.
What happened to Opendoor over the past five years?
As an iBuyer, Opendoor makes instant cash offers for homes, repairs them, and relists them on its own marketplace. It uses AI algorithms to price those offers and listing prices. Its business flourished when interest rates were low, and it experienced a major growth spurt during the post-pandemic housing boom in the second half of 2020 and 2021.
However, its growth stalled out in 2022 and 2023 as rising interest rates chilled the housing market. That shift drove(Z 4.91%) and's (RKT 5.74%) Redfin to both shut down their capital-intensive iBuying platforms in 2022 and surrender the nascent market to Opendoor.
Opendoor's business didn't warm up in 2024, even as the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark rates three times. But in the first half of 2025, its business gradually stabilized, its adjusted earnings for interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) margin improved, and it narrowed its net loss year over year from $201 million to $114 million.
|
Revenue |
$8.0 billion |
$15.6 billion |
$6.9 billion |
$5.2 billion |
$2.7 billion |
|
Revenue growth (YOY) |
211% |
94% |
(55%) |
(26%) |
1% |
|
Homes bought |
36,908 |
34,962 |
11,246 |
14,684 |
5,366 |
|
Adjusted EBITDA margin |
0.7% |
(1.1%) |
(9%) |
(2.8%) |
(0.3%) |
|
Net loss |
($662 million) |
($1.4 billion) |
($275 million) |
($392 million) |
($114 million) |
Data source: Opendoor.
That stabilization was buoyed by steady interest rates and its fresh listing partnerships with home builders, real estate platforms, and agents -- which all reduced its dependence on its Core iBuying platform. It's also upgrading its AI algorithms and expanding Opendoor Exclusives, a marketplace that directly matches its sellers to potential buyers.
Those new capital-light strategies, which don't require Opendoor to buy and renovate any houses, could help it generate more of its revenues from higher-margin commissions. As it expanded that ecosystem, it pruned its workforce, reduced its resale transaction costs and commissions, and streamlined its other expenses. Those efforts helped it narrow its net losses and finally achieve a positive adjusted EBITDA margin in the second quarter of 2025.
What will happen to Opendoor over the next five years?
It might seem like Opendoor is finally reaching a turning point, but it scaled back its home purchases again (down 63% sequentially and 51% year over year) in the second quarter of 2025. It also expects its revenue to drop 38% to 43% year over year in the third quarter as its adjusted EBITDA turns negative again. For the full year, analysts expect its revenue to decline 20% to $4.1 billion as its adjusted EBITDA improves from negative $142 million to negative $66 million.
Opendoor attributes that slowdown to elevated mortgage rates (which remain stubbornly high even after the Fed's rate cuts in 2024), affordability issues, and more sellers taking their properties off the market. It doesn't expect the housing market to warm up anytime soon, so it's reining in its purchases to avoid being stuck with more unsold properties.
But over the next few years, the housing market should heat up again. It's unclear when that will happen, but analysts expect Opendoor's revenue to rise 6% in 2026 and 16% to $5.1 billion in 2027. They also expect its adjusted EBITDA to turn positive in 2027.
With an enterprise value of $5.3 billion, Opendoor still looks dirt cheap at 1.3 times this year's sales. If it matches analysts' estimates, continues to grow its revenue at a CAGR of 10% from 2027 to 2030, and trades at a more generous four times sales, its stock could rise more than sixfold to about $40 and exceed its previous all-time high.
However, it would only achieve that growth if interest rates keep declining and the U.S. housing market recovers. If that doesn't happen, Opendoor could sink as it runs out of steam. I don't think this housing market malaise will drag on for five years, so its stock should gradually head higher again as more sellers and buyers return to the market.
