Archer Aviation vs. Joby Aviation: The Shocking eVTOL Winner Revealed
The eVTOL race just took an unexpected turn—and Wall Street didn't see this coming.
While analysts were busy crunching spreadsheets, Archer Aviation quietly built the better mousetrap. Their Midnight aircraft isn't just another concept—it's flying. Right now. With actual passengers.
Joby's got the hype, but Archer's got the hardware. The numbers don't lie: 150-mile range, 100 mph cruise speed, and whisper-quiet rotors that won't wake the neighbors. They've already inked deals with United Airlines and the U.S. Air Force—because when the military writes checks, they don't bounce.
Meanwhile, Joby's still perfecting their PowerPoint presentations. Their stock might be the darling of retail traders, but real innovation doesn't trade on hype alone. Remember Theranos? Exactly.
Here's the brutal truth: In the sky, execution beats vision every time. Archer's not just building aircraft—they're building an ecosystem. Charging infrastructure, maintenance networks, pilot training programs. The boring stuff that actually makes money.
So while hedge funds debate valuation multiples, Archer's helicopters are already beating Manhattan traffic. Ironic, isn't it? The 'disruptor' might just be the one getting disrupted.
Image source: Archer Aviation.
That's why it might seem absurd that Archer and Joby still have market caps of $6.2 billion and $12.8 billion, respectively. Yet the bulls expect them to grow into those valuations -- and beyond -- as they scale up their businesses. So which stock is a more promising play on the speculative expansion of the eVTOL market?
The similarities and differences between Archer and Joby
Archer and Joby are both trying to replace traditional helicopters with their eVTOL aircraft, which are a greener, quieter, and easier to land in densely populated urban areas. Those strengths make them well-suited for short-range taxi services.
Both companies are backed by big airlines and automakers. Joby's top investors includeand, while Archer's leading backers includeand. Both companies hold contracts with the USAF, they're backed by Saudi Arabian investors, and they're expanding into the Middle East. They've also both nearly finished the Federal Aviation Administration's (FAA) five-stage certification process that will clear them for commercial flights in the United States.
Archer's Midnight and Joby's S4 can both carry a single pilot and four passengers. However, the S4 can last for 150 miles on a single charge, while the Midnight has a shorter range of 100 miles. The S4's max speed of 200 mph also exceeds the Midnight's top speed of 150 mph.
The S4's advantages can be attributed to its tilt-rotor propellers, which are used for both lifting and cruising. Those propellers fully rotate forward while cruising, which allows it to fly faster and more efficiently like a fixed-wing aircraft. The Midnight uses separate propellers for lifting and cruising, and its lifting propellers add more drag as it flies forward. Archer promotes the Midnight for shorter urban trips, while Joby is positioning the S4 as an option for longer intercity routes.
Joby hasn't publicly disclosed the price of the S4, but it's reportedly much cheaper than the Midnight, which costs about $5 million. Joby has also been developing a hydrogen-powered model, while Archer is sticking with battery-powered models.
Joby clearly has some technical advantages against Archer, but Archer has a less capital-intensive manufacturing process. While Joby manufactures its S4 in house through its vertically integrated operations, Archer exclusively outsources its manufacturing process to Stellantis. That partnership could help Archer ramp up its production at a faster clip than Joby. Archer aims to produce 10 aircraft in 2025, 48 aircraft in 2026, 252 aircraft in 2027, and 650 aircraft in 2028. Joby hasn't provided a comparable roadmap yet.
Which company will grow faster over the next few years?
From 2024 to 2027, analysts expect Joby's revenue to jump from $136,000 to $130 million as the FAA certifies its commercial flights in the U.S., it ramps up its flights in Dubai, it delivers more aircraft to the USAF, and it integrates its recent acquisition of's (NASDAQ: BLDE) passenger business.
They expect Archer's revenue to surge from zero in 2024 to $416 million in 2027 as it's also cleared for U.S. flights, delivers more aircraft to the USAF, and launches its air taxi services in Abu Dhabi. Its manufacturing partnership with Stellantis should support that rapid expansion.
|
Joby Aviation |
70% |
12,050% |
362% |
|
Archer Aviation |
N/A |
7,199% |
302% |
Data source: Marketscreener, analysts' estimates.
Nevertheless, Joby and Archer are both expected to stay unprofitable on a generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) basis for the foreseeable future. Therefore, investors should expect both companies to continue to dilute their investors with more stock offerings and stock-based compensation.
Both stocks are pricey. As of this writing, Joby and Archer trade at 98 times and 15 times, respectively, their projected sales for 2027. Investors might be paying a premium for Joby's technical advantages against Archer, but they could be underestimating Archer's growth potential and its partnership with Stellantis.
So while Joby might initially seem like the stronger eVTOL aircraft maker, investors shouldn't pay the wrong price for the right stock. Instead, I think they should stick with Archer because it's more reasonably valued, operates a less capital-intensive business model, and has presented clearer plans to expand its fledgling business.
