Wall Street Isn’t Expecting a Big Pop for Nvidia Stock on Aug. 27 - Here’s Why Analysts Could Be Dead Wrong

Nvidia's upcoming earnings should smash expectations—yet Wall Street's playing it cautious. Here's why the smart money might be looking the wrong way.

The AI Titan's Momentum

Nvidia dominates the AI chip space like no other. Demand isn't just high—it's insatiable. Data centers, generative AI, autonomous systems—everyone needs more processing power. Supply constraints? They've been easing. Production ramps up. Customers queue up.

Wall Street's Conservative Bet

Analysts project modest gains. They cite valuation concerns, cyclical fears, and broader market jitters. They point to past run-ups and whisper about a cooling phase. Typical finance crowd—always fighting the last war instead of seeing the next revolution.

Where the Bulls See Opportunity

Forward guidance could shock. New product cycles, expanded partnerships, and untapped verticals suggest explosive growth ahead. The numbers don't lie—unless you're an analyst who prefers Excel sheets over real-world disruption.

One cynical jab? Wall Street would rather price risk than reward vision—until the vision cashes out.

Don't be surprised if Nvidia does what it does best: outperforms while skeptics scratch their heads.

Low expectations?

To be sure, Wall Street is looking for great numbers from Nvidia's fiscal Q2 update. The consensus estimate is for adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.01. If Nvidia hits that mark, it will represent year-over-year growth of 48.5%.

The average estimate among analysts for the company's fiscal Q2 revenue is $46 billion. In the same period last year, Nvidia generated revenue of a little over $30 billion. If the company meets Wall Street's projection, its revenue will soar roughly 53.1% year over year.

Those estimates clearly don't reflect low expectations for Nvidia. However, analysts nonetheless don't seem to think the Q2 update will serve as a significant catalyst for the stock. How can we know that? Just look at Wall Street's price targets for Nvidia.

The average price target for the stock is only around 8% higher than the current share price. Keep in mind, though, that this is a 12-month target. If analysts think that Nvidia's share price will be only 8% or so higher a year from now, they're almost certainly not anticipating a big MOVE this week.

Why Nvidia could soar after its Q2 update

Nvidia's stock could still soar after the company reports its fiscal Q2 results, though. One possibility is that Nvidia delivers much higher earnings than expected. This isn't an unlikely event: The GPU Maker has easily topped consensus EPS estimates in each of the past four quarters.

Granted, Nvidia's past earnings beats haven't always caused its share price to surge by a jaw-dropping level. For example, the company's adjusted earnings per share were $0.06 higher than the Wall Street consensus in fiscal Q1. Nvidia's stock ROSE around 3% the next day -- not bad, but not anything to get excited about.

However, surprisingly strong fiscal Q2 results just might be enough to fire up investors. If Nvidia does deliver much better news than expected, it will probably be because of its new Blackwell GPUs. CFO Colette Kress said in the fiscal Q1 earnings call that the Blackwell ramp-up has been "the fastest in our company's history."

I suspect that a more plausible reason Nvidia's stock could take off following its Q2 update is if management gives especially bullish commentary in the earnings call. There have been solid hints from several of Nvidia's major customers in their own recent quarterly updates to support this scenario.,, Google parent, anddiscussed increased investments in AI infrastructure, which will probably translate to more demand for Nvidia's chips.

Image source: Getty Images.

Investors could also applaud any positive updates from Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang on progress toward selling more advanced AI chips to China. Huang recently stated that the company is talking with the U.S. government about this possibility.

Wall Street is probably right about one thing

Will Nvidia's share price pop after the company's fiscal Q2 update? We won't know for sure until later this week. However, I think Wall Street is probably right about one thing: The stock remains a good pick.

Of the 65 analysts surveyed byin August who cover Nvidia, 58 rated the stock as a "buy" or a "strong buy." Many of these analysts might not look for Nvidia's share price to rise appreciably over the next few days, but they seem to be optimistic about the longer term.