Venture Global Soars: The Hidden Catalyst Behind Today’s 2025 Rally

Markets blinked—then bolted. Venture Global just pulled off a silent coup in energy markets, and Wall Street's playing catch-up.

The domino no one saw tipping

Liquefied natural gas flows shifted tectonic this morning. Not with a regulatory bang, but through Venture Global's surgical infrastructure tweaks—the kind that make analysts scramble for Excel models.

Short sellers got steamrolled

Three contract renegotiations. Two port upgrades. One 11th-hour cargo reroute. The math adds up to a 14% intraday pop while 'stable' oil majors flatlined. Classic case of markets rewarding the scalpel over the sledgehammer.

Funny how 'disruptive infrastructure' always means someone's pension fund just got disrupted. The LNG game's new rulebook? Print it on tissue paper—it'll need updating by lunch.

Venture delivers in Q2, and in court

In the second quarter, Venture Global saw revenue of $3.1 billion, up 180% year over year, along with adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) of $1.39 billion, up 217%. Both figures came in ahead of analyst expectations.

Management announced the company was ramping production of its Plaquemines terminal quicker than expected, and now expects total cargoes for the year to be at the high end of the previously given 367-389 range, which encompasses both Plaquemines as well as the first Calcasieu Pass project, which entered official commercial operations in April. However, management kept its full-year EBITDA targets unchanged.

Venture Global also announced it won its arbitration case against one of its customers,(SHEL 0.62%). Shell brought a case two years ago, after Venture Global opted to sell cargos on the spot market from Calcasieu Pass when LNG prices were much higher following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, rather than to Shell and other customers with which Venture had signed a long-term supply agreements at lower prices.

It appears Venture's argument, that it had only sold those cargoes during the pre-commercialization phase and was thus not obligated to sell those cargoes until official commercialization, won over arbitrators. Thus, the potential overhang of financial penalties was removed, it seems.

Image source: Getty Images.

Venture Global is still half its IPO price

While the near-tripling of revenues was good to see, investors can look forward to more growth in the years ahead. In late July, the company announced it had made the final decision to begin phase 1 of the second Calcasieu Pass (CP2) project, following the company securing over $15 billion in financing, all while having its credit upgraded by.

This growth will be very capital-intensive. However, with natural gas seemingly in high demand from foreign customers, both for security reasons and to power AI data centers, Venture Global should eventually be a very high-cash-flowing business. Even after today's rally, the stock is well below its January IPO price of $25. So, enterprising investors may want to dig into this story in the second half.