Can $10,000 in Altria Group Stock Really Double to $20,000 by 2030?

Altria Group—tobacco giant, dividend darling, and a bet that vice never dies. But can it actually turn $10K into $20K by 2030?

Let’s cut through the smoke.

The math isn’t impossible, but it’s a stretch. Altria’s stock would need to deliver nearly 10% annualized returns for five straight years—no small feat for a company battling declining cigarette volumes and regulatory headwinds.

Dividends help, sure. Altria’s juicy 8% yield pads returns, but reinvesting those payouts won’t magically bridge the gap. Growth? Their pivot to smokeless products is more 'Hail Mary' than 'sure thing.'

Wall Street’s consensus? Cautious optimism—if you ignore the fact analysts are still pricing in humanity’s inability to quit bad habits.

Bottom line: Doubling your money here isn’t a slam dunk. But hey, if you believe in the eternal power of nicotine addiction—and the market’s willingness to reward it—why not light up and hope?

Image source: Getty Images.

Altria's smokeless products are key to future performance

Altria stock trades at roughly 12 times this year's expected earnings and pays a dividend yielding 6.4%. There's also a very good chance the company will raise its dividend again in the NEAR future.

Altria has raised its dividend on an annual basis for 55 consecutive years. It actually delivered 59 payout increases across that stretch.

Altria will likely continue to pay a strong dividend and increase its payout annually for several more years.

Along with stock buybacks, margin improvements helped pave the way for earnings growth even in the face of sales declines. While Altria's revenue declined 3.6% annually to $11.36 billion across the first half of 2025, non-GAAP (adjusted) earnings per share were actually up 7.2% compared to the prior-year period.

Altria saw a strong valuation run-up over the last year of trading, with the company's share price climbing nearly 29% over that period. In addition to the bullish backdrop for the broader market, the company's gains have been driven by encouraging performance for its products outside of smokeable tobacco and resilience for cigarette revenue despite ongoing unit volume headwinds. Recent gains for the stock could make doubling over the next five years more difficult, but the stock has a path to hitting that performance level if growth for smokeless products continues to beat expectations.