Firefly Aerospace Stock Rockets After IPO—Time to Buy or Just Hype?

Firefly Aerospace just blasted onto the public markets—and investors are scrambling for a seat on the ride. Shares surged post-IPO, but is this a moonshot or a bubble waiting to pop?

Here’s the breakdown:

The Launchpad Momentum

Firefly’s debut had all the fireworks of a successful mission—initial demand sent shares soaring, leaving Wall Street buzzing. But remember: what goes up doesn’t always stick the landing.

The Fuel Behind the Rally

Space remains a hot sector, and Firefly’s tech promises to disrupt. Yet, skeptics whisper that IPO pops often burn retail investors when the hype fades faster than a SpaceX re-entry.

Buy, Hold, or Bail?

If you’re betting on space dominance, this might be your ticket. But tread carefully—today’s market darling can become tomorrow’s debris field. And hey, since when did fundamentals matter in a zero-gravity market?

The IPO market stays hot

After several big IPOs includinglast week, the IPO market stayed hot with Firefly Aerospace, which is now approaching a $10 billion valuation out of the gate. I WOULD categorize space as one of the hot sectors, along with artificial intelligence, crypto, and quantum computing, that investors can't seem to get enough of.

Image source: Getty Images.

Firefly enables "government and commercial customers to launch, land, and operate in space -- anywhere, anytime." In March, the company's Blue Ghost lander became the first commercial company to land on the moon. Firefly's mission is to make "responsive, regular, and reliable launch, transit, and operations in space" possible for customers worldwide.

The company is still losing hundreds of millions of dollars a year, but saw its revenue in the first quarter of 2025 surge 572% year over year. Firefly also said in its registration statement that it had a backlog of $1.1 billion at the end of the first quarter.

Should you buy the stock?

Investors should keep in mind that often times companies only issue only a portion of shares in the IPO, creating strong demand on day one. But then more shares eventually hit the market over time. Firefly issued as much as roughly 22.2 million shares in the IPO, but its registration statement listed weighted average shares of 43.7 million at the end of the first quarter.

Ultimately, the company seems to be a leader in a promising futuristic industry, so it has the potential to be a big winner. However, companies operating in new sectors like this typically face significant uncertainties from a regulatory and operational standpoint, so I wouldn't take anything more than a smaller, more speculative position right now.