If You’d Dropped $10K on BigBear.ai Stock a Year Ago, Here’s the Brutal (or Beautiful) Truth

BigBear.ai: The AI stock that either minted millionaires or vaporized portfolios—no in-between.

Let’s cut to the chase: This wasn’t a 'safe bet.' It was a rocket ship or a dumpster fire, depending on when you hit 'sell.'

The Numbers Don’t Lie

That hypothetical $10,000? Either up 300% or down 80%—because in the AI casino, volatility’s the house special. No dividends, just adrenaline.

Wall Street’s Latest Rollercoaster

Analysts called it 'disruptive.' Traders called it 'unhinged.' Turns out, both were right. The stock zigzagged like a drunk algorithm—classic 2024-2025 meme-stock behavior, but with more buzzwords.

Cold Hard Lesson

AI stocks aren’t investments; they’re speculative grenades. You either hold your breath and cash out early… or become a cautionary tweet. Meanwhile, hedge funds still charge 2-and-20 for this 'expertise.'

Image source: Getty Images.

Can BigBear.ai's stock really keep going?

As a provider of artificial intelligence (AI) software and consulting services, BigBear.ai has recently seen big valuation gains as AI companies with exposure to the defense industry have become favorites on Wall Street. Artificial intelligence is having a transformative impact on a wide range of market sectors right now, and geopolitical dynamics including the war between Russia and Ukraine and tensions between the U.S. and China have encouraged investors to seek out defense AI plays.

With its last quarterly update, BigBear.ai guided for annual revenue to be between $160 million and $180 million -- representing growth of roughly 7.5% at the midpoint of the target range. Meanwhile, BigBear.ai is valued at approximately 12 times this year's expected sales and still isn't profitable.

New contract wins and excitement surrounding defense AI trades could continue to push the company's share price well above current levels, but eventually the business will need to show stronger margin improvements to please investors. For example, the business posted a gross margin of just 21.3% last quarter -- a level that's quite low for a software and services company. BigBear.ai stock could keep delivering wins for investors, but the company has some proving to do following its recent valuation gains.