Stock-Split Watch: Is BigBear.ai Next?
Artificial intelligence meets Wall Street speculation as BigBear.ai captures trader attention.
The Algorithmic Frenzy
Market whispers intensify around potential corporate action. Technical indicators suggest something brewing beneath the surface.
Split Psychology
Retail investors chase perceived affordability while institutions monitor liquidity shifts. The age-old game of market perception plays out in real-time.
AI's Wall Street Gambit
Machine learning algorithms analyze historical patterns while human traders place their bets. The convergence of technology and finance creates perfect conditions for volatility.
Because nothing says 'fundamental value' like arbitrarily dividing shares while maintaining the same market cap—a classic Wall Street magic trick that somehow still dazzles the crowd.
Image source: Getty Images.
A forward stock split is highly unlikely
The most common type of stock split is a forward split, where a company increases its number of shares and lowers its share price. Imagine you own 10 shares in a company that's trading at $300, and it conducts a 3-for-1 stock split. Your 10 shares WOULD become 30, and the share price would go from $300 to $100.
As you can see, the actual value of your position (and the company) doesn't change after a stock split. All that changes is the share price and the number of shares.
Forward stock splits usually happen when a stock has been rising and is getting into a price range that could scare off prospective investors. If a stock costs $1,000 per share, that can prevent some people from investing, especially those on a budget.
BigBear.ai won't have that problem anytime soon. Even after its recent success, it currently trades at under $10, and the all-time high was $12.69. There's really no reason for BigBear.ai to carry out a forward split, but that isn't the only way a company can split its stock.
A heavy drop in value could lead to a reverse stock split
In a reverse stock split, a company decreases its number of shares and increases its share price. While forward splits are often good news for investors, the same usually isn't true with reverse splits. Often, it's because a company's low share price puts it in danger of being delisted.
BigBear.ai trades on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), and maintaining a share price of at least $1 is a continued listing requirement there. Companies are out of compliance if their share price is below $1 over a consecutive 30-day trading period.
There was a time when BigBear.ai was in the danger zone. It dropped to an all-time low of $0.63 in December 2022, and it spent much of last year below $2. But barring a total collapse, a reverse split probably isn't in the cards for BigBear.ai.
BigBear.ai has posted lackluster results so far
BigBear.ai looks like an exciting investment at first glance. It uses AI to analyze data, and it mainly markets to government businesses, where it develops custom solutions to fit their needs. If you squint, you can see a resemblance to, which has gained a staggering 2,220% over the last three years.
Except Palantir reported year-over-year revenue growth of 48% to $1 billion in Q2 2025, while BigBear.ai saw its revenue decrease 18% year over year to $32.5 million. Palantir's margins are also much, much better. Its gross profit margin was 81% for its most recent quarter. BigBear.ai's was 25%.
The odds of BigBear.ai announcing a forward or reverse stock split are extremely low right now. Even if it was going to do so, that wouldn't fix its issues. While other AI companies have seen their revenue soar, BigBear.ai's earnings have decreased, and its low profit margins indicate operational inefficiencies. Until it can improve on those numbers, it's a risky bet.
