Bitcoin Smashes Through Resistance—$100K Target Now in Sight
BTC surges to multi-month highs as institutional FOMO meets retail frenzy. Traders dust off ’to the moon’ memes while Wall Street quietly recalculates its ’bubble’ narrative.
Key drivers: Spot ETF inflows hit $1B daily, miners hodl harder, and macro uncertainty drives capital into digital gold. Even Jamie Dimon’s annual anti-crypto rant failed to dent momentum this time.
The real question? Whether this rally has legs—or if it’s just another pump before the inevitable ’correction’ that lets hedge funds buy the dip. After all, traditional finance never misses a chance to profit from volatility it claims to despise.
Simmering down
Aurelie Barthere, principal analyst at onchain analytics platform Nansen, told Decrypt that recent statements by Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signaled to the market that “tariff escalation may be less aggressive than feared.”
The analyst noted how traders are now treating Trump’s administration as a “backstop for risk,” adding, “Markets seem to believe there’s a ‘Trump put’ under equities, Treasuries, and crypto.”
Still, she warned that “this rally still needs validation,” especially as trade talks with China continue.
“We’ve priced in scenario one,” she said, referring to Nansen’s internal forecast, which assigns a 55% probability to Bitcoin gradually reaching new all-time highs.
But Barthere said the bullish momentum is now “less asymmetric,” meaning there’s less room for upside surprise.
Marcin Kazmierczak, COO and co-founder of modular oracle RedStone, offered a broader macro perspective, pointing to how Bitcoin’s relationship with traditional markets has been fluid over the past year:
“Bitcoin exhibits variable correlation with the S&P 500 over the past year, fluctuating between approximately -0.2 and 0.4,” he told Decrypt.
Kazmierczak explained that this puts Bitcoin firmly in the “diversifier” category, not a true “safe haven,” because it “doesn’t consistently move opposite to stocks during downturns.”
In its latest outlook, shared with Decrypt, Nansen warned that market sentiment may be “getting ahead of fundamentals.”
The report flagged a sharp drop in the equity risk premium, now below 3%, as evidence that traders are “underpricing downside risks” despite fragile consumption data, stalled trade talks with China, and CORE services inflation continuing to climb.
Edited by Sebastian Sinclair
