Solana Season Could Be Coming in Q4 Already, Bitwise Predicts
Solana's momentum builds as institutional players eye Q4 breakout.
Bitwise's latest analysis suggests Solana might be gearing up for its strongest performance yet—and sooner than many expected. The asset manager points to growing developer activity and surging transaction volumes as key catalysts.
Why Q4 matters
Historically, crypto's fourth quarter has delivered some of the market's most explosive moves. With Solana's ecosystem expanding faster than many of its Layer-1 rivals, the timing aligns perfectly with broader market cycles.
Institutional validation
Bitwise isn't alone in its optimism. Several major funds have been quietly accumulating SOL positions—because nothing says conviction like betting on volatility while charging 2-and-20.
The technical setup
Network upgrades and improving fundamentals create a compelling case. Solana's throughput continues to outpace competitors, and its defi ecosystem keeps attracting capital away from older chains.
Timing the season
While predictions are just that—predictions—the combination of technical momentum and institutional interest makes this one worth watching. Just remember: in crypto, seasons change faster than a VC's investment thesis.
Inflows could move price fast
Solana’s pitch usually centers on speed, low costs, and scalability as the network can process far more transactions per second than Ethereum, at a fraction of the cost, and with rapid finality. An approved fundamental Alpenglow upgrade will also cut the time to finalize transactions from roughly 12 seconds to just 150 milliseconds, potentially making Solana one of the fastest networks in the space.
However, there’re still some tradeoffs. As Hougan admits, critics argue that Solana is able to make this happen because “it’s more centralized and fragile.” Yet it has attracted users, ranking third in stablecoin liquidity among programmable blockchains, behind Ethereum and TRON, and fourth in tokenized assets.
One key difference with Solana is scale. While Bitcoin’s market cap sits at $2.22 trillion and Ethereum’s at $519 billion, Solana’s is roughly $116 billion, which is about 1/20th of bitcoin and less than 1/4th of Ethereum.
“Scaled for the size of the blockchain, a relatively small amount of flows into Solana could significantly impact prices. For instance, Forward Industries’ $1.6 billion purchase of Solana shares WOULD be the equivalent of $33 billion in bitcoin purchases. This is offset somewhat by Solana’s higher annual inflation rate (~4.3%) compared to both bitcoin (0.8%) and Ethereum (~0.5%).”
Matt Hougan
For now, Solana remains a comparatively small player with ambitious growth targets. Yet technical and institutional backing could potentially give it a setup that could translate into a meaningful rally if the right flows and market sentiment align, Hougan suggests. For those watching the space, keeping an eye on Solana in Q4 might be worth it, but as always, risk remains high and surprises are the norm.
