Monero Oversold Bounce Sparks Reversal Speculation - Is XMR Primed for a Comeback?

Privacy coin flashes bullish signal after hitting extreme oversold territory.

Technical Turnaround

Monero's RSI dipped below 30 for the first time since January, triggering algorithmic buys that propelled XMR 18% off its local lows. The bounce caught short sellers off guard—liquidating $2.3 million in leveraged positions within 24 hours.

Privacy Premium Persists

While regulators keep targeting anonymity-focused assets, Monero's core technology continues evolving. Its latest protocol upgrade enhanced transaction efficiency by 40%, proving developers aren't just sitting around waiting for compliance paperwork.

Market Mechanics at Play

The rally needs to hold above $160 to confirm momentum. Failure here could see retest of support at $142—because in crypto, even 'oversold' can become 'more oversold' when traditional finance decides to throw another tantrum about decentralization.

Key Monero price technical points

• Oversold Bounce at $231: Bullish engulfing candles triggered reversal after extreme selling pressure.
• Value Area Low Test: Price is attempting to reclaim this level, with rejection signaling supply remains.
• Upside Target at $344: If reclaimed, XMR could rally to high time frame resistance confluent with the point of control.

The oversold bounce in XMR has provided bulls with an opportunity to regain control after weeks of heavy selling. The sharp drop began once the point of control was lost, driving price action down to the $231 support zone.

This region marked exhaustion of sellers, with demand stepping in to produce a powerful bullish engulfing reaction. From a technical standpoint, this pattern reflects an imbalance correction where oversold conditions often spark aggressive rebounds.

Price action is now consolidating near the value area low, which is acting as a short-term barrier. Multiple rejections here highlight the presence of supply, but the lack of a retracement back to $231 suggests that buyers remain in control. A decisive reclaim of the value area low WOULD be a critical signal that demand has absorbed supply, opening the door to further upside momentum.

If this level is reclaimed, the next logical target lies at $344, a high time frame resistance that aligns with the point of control. This region represents a high-volume node where significant trading activity previously occurred, making it a likely magnet for price action.

Testing this level would confirm Monero’s transition from an oversold reaction into a full-fledged reversal trend. Traders should pay close attention to volume behavior during these moves, as sustained bullish inflows are necessary to drive price beyond resistance.

What to expect in the coming price action

Monero’s outlook hinges on its ability to reclaim the value area low. A successful retest supported by volume would validate the oversold bounce and drive price action toward $344. Conversely, repeated rejections without strong buying pressure could lead to further consolidation, with risk of revisiting $231 if momentum fades.