XAUUSD Weekly Forecast: Will FOMC Week Propel Gold to Record Highs?
Gold's poised for a monumental breakout as Federal Reserve policymakers gather—could this be the catalyst that sends XAUUSD screaming past previous all-time highs?
The Fed's Dilemma
Inflation data refuses to play nice with economic models, leaving Jerome Powell and crew walking a monetary tightrope. Every word from this week's FOMC meeting will get dissected by algorithms and traders alike—gold's reacting to every whisper before the statements even hit the wires.
Market Mechanics in Overdrive
Hedge funds are loading up on gold contracts while retail investors pile into ETFs—creating a volatility cocktail that could ignite the next major leg up. Technical indicators show consolidation patterns breaking to the upside, suggesting institutional money's positioning for a dollar slump.
The Cynical Take
Because nothing makes traditional finance professionals happier than watching a 5,000-year-old shiny rock outperform their meticulously crafted derivatives portfolios. Gold doesn't care about your Excel models—it just knows fear and greed better than any Fed economist.
All eyes on the dot plot. All momentum pointing north.
Key economic events of this week
Some significant U.S. economic reports are scheduled for release this week that are expected to impact XAUUSD.
Aug 20 – FOMC Meeting Minutes
Gold may experience bearish pressure as hopes for a rate decrease wane if the minutes reveal a hawkish Fed position. Gold WOULD benefit from any dovish indications or growth-related worries.
Aug 21 – Unemployment Claims & PMIs
Increased unemployment claims would indicate a sluggish labor market, which would increase gold prices. Gold is supported by a contractionary manufacturing PMI (below 50), but gold may be weighed down by a strong services PMI that strengthens the USD.
Aug 22 – Powell Speech & Jackson Hole Symposium
The main motivator will be Powell’s tone. While dovish or recession-related comments could lead to a bullish rise, hawkish remarks about maintaining rates higher for longer would put pressure on gold.
Gold HTF Overview
The monthly timeframe is still showing a MOVE upwards towards external liquidity, and that is exactly what’s happening right now.
We can expect the move to continue towards $3440, and eventually towards a test of the previous ATH of $3500 as well.
Gold forecast for August 18th to August 22nd, 2025
In the 4h chart, we can see a supply from $3420-3440, where we can short gold this week if the price decides to pump there.
In the daily timeframe, a major level for buying gold is starting from $3314-3281 due to the daily level support and range low.
In the 15m chart of gold, we have immediate buying levels at $3334-3326 due to the FVG and range low in the 15m timeframe.
Trading Strategies & Investment Recommendation
To conclude, gold can give both buys and sells this week; however, buys are strongly preferred over sells. Lower time frames are suggesting sells, while higher time frames are still favoring a buy position in gold.
Resistance Levels
- $3420-3440 – 4h supply of gold
Support Levels
- $3314-3281 – daily support of gold and range low
- $3334-3326 – 15min FVG and range low
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