Bitcoin’s Bull Run Hits a Snag: On-Chain Data Reveals Profit-Taking Frenzy (Glassnode Report)
Bitcoin's rally slams into resistance as traders cash in gains—Glassnode's latest metrics flash warning signs.
Profit-taking pressure mounts
The blockchain doesn't lie: a surge in UTXO realizations shows veteran holders dumping bags while newcomers FOMO in. Classic bull market behavior—until it isn't.
Whale wallets vs. retail traders
On-chain analytics reveal institutional-sized sell orders creeping into order books. Meanwhile, Coinbase premiums suggest retail investors keep chasing the pump. Someone's about to be left holding the bags.
Macro headwinds loom
With Fed rate cuts delayed and traditional markets jittery, crypto's 'decoupled' narrative faces its sternest test since the last cycle's blow-off top. But hey—at least the Tether printer's warmed up.
The bottom line? Every market needs breathers—even ones fueled by memes and institutional FOMO. Whether this cools off into healthy consolidation or something uglier depends on who blinks first: diamond hands or Wall Street's latest 'digital gold' converts.
Glassnode: BTC momentum returns, but risk remains
According to Glassnode’s Aug. 11 analysis, market momentum is improving, but there is a growing risk of profit-taking. In the spot market, the relative strength index ROSE from 41.5 to 47.5, bouncing from oversold conditions.
Spot cumulative volume delta shifted from heavy selling to near-neutral territory, while spot trading volume fell 22% to $5.7 billion, suggesting the recent rebound has not yet attracted broad participation.
In derivatives, futures open interest eased to $44.1 billion, with long-side funding rates still elevated but slightly lower than last week. Perpetual cumulative volume delta improved to -$0.2 billion, indicating more aggressive buy-side activity.
Options open interest increased 6.7% to $42.4 billion, while the volatility spread contracted sharply to 10.45%, near its lower band, a sign that traders may be pricing in too little volatility. The 25-delta skew eased but stayed above its high band, reflecting continued demand for downside hedges.
Exchange-traded fund flows also improved, with outflows shrinking by more than half, although trading volumes dropped 27.7% to $13.7 billion. ETF MVRV rose to 2.43, meaning funds are holding significant unrealized gains, which could encourage selling.
Glassnode concluded that the market has shifted from seller exhaustion to a strong rebound near recent highs. However, it warned that elevated profitability, with 94.1% of supply in profit, combined with a realized profit/loss ratio of 1.9, suggests profit-taking could quickly reverse sentiment.
Bitcoin technical analysis
Bitcoin’s daily chart shows price retreating from the upper Bollinger Band after testing $122,000 resistance. While momentum and MACD indicators point to a buy, indicating underlying support, the RSI is at 58, which is neutral but leaning toward bullish territory.
All of the short-term moving averages (10, 20, 30, and 50-day) are still above $116,000 and in a bullish formation, supporting the $116,000–$117,000 range as a crucial support. A close above $122,500 could pave the way for new highs, while a break below this range might see Bitcoin return towards the $112,000 mark.
