Bitcoin’s Cycle Top Could Hit by Late August as MVRV Nears Peak—Time to Brace?

Bitcoin's market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio is flashing warning signs—again. CryptoQuant data suggests the king coin might be gearing up for its cycle top by late August, just as retail FOMO starts peaking. Here's why traders are sweating.

MVRV creeping into the danger zone? Check. Greed index flirting with ATH levels? Double-check. Another 'this time it's different' narrative? Of course—because Wall Street hasn't learned its lesson since the last dump.

Pro tip: When your Uber driver starts citing MVRV ratios, it's probably time to rebalance. Just saying.

U.S.-EU trade deal boosts crypto market sentiment

Sentiment improved over the weekend after the U.S. and EU reached a trade deal, pushing Bitcoin back towards $119,000. Tariffs on European goods will drop from 30% to 15%, while Europe has committed to buying $750 billion in U.S. energy and investing in joint infrastructure projects. The news helped lift both stocks and crypto.

Traders are now focused on this week’s Federal Reserve meeting. Rates are expected to stay unchanged at 4.25%–4.50%, but markets will be listening for any hints of rate cuts later this year. If the Fed leans dovish, risk assets like bitcoin could benefit.

Bitcoin technical analysis

Bitcoin is still consolidating, hovering just below the psychological $120,000 mark. Although the Bollinger Bands indicate that volatility is tightening, price action has remained above the 20-day moving average.

With the relative strength index down to roughly 61, momentum appears to be cooling but not necessarily reversing. The current setup permits a short pullback before any additional upward movement, though a breakout is still possible.

Bitcoin may rise toward $125,000 if it surpasses $120,000. However, there could be a decline to the $114,000 range if support at $117,899 fails to hold.