Arthur Hayes Predicts Bitcoin at $250K and Ethereum at $10K by Year-End Amid War and Credit Surge

Crypto markets brace for a wild ride as BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes drops a bombshell price prediction. The numbers? Bitcoin to $250,000 and Ethereum hitting $10,000 before New Year's Eve.

War and loose credit fuel the fire

Hayes points to geopolitical tensions and central bank money printers running hot as twin catalysts for the coming crypto supercycle. When guns blaze and credit flows, digital assets historically outperform—even if traditional investors still don't get it.

Wall Street's loss could be crypto's gain

While institutional traders obsess over Fed meetings, Hayes suggests the real action's happening off their radar. 'Banks will still be debating CBDCs while retail traders stack sats,' he might say—with the unspoken jab that legacy finance moves at bureaucratic speed in a blockchain world.

Buckle up for volatility

These targets represent 5-10x moves from current levels. Whether you see prophecy or madness in the numbers depends on your risk appetite—and whether you believe macro chaos truly benefits decentralized assets.

A war-inflated credit cycle could benefit crypto

Hayes sees the current geopolitical order, particularly the expanding wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, as a catalyst for runaway government borrowing. Citing the U.S. defense budget, which surpassed $1 trillion in 2024, and expanding programs in Europe and Asia, he describes a global environment primed for aggressive fiscal expansion.

This surge in public spending, he notes, will be funded not by higher taxes but by central bank balance sheets. As real interest rates are forced negative to keep debt service sustainable, Hayes believes inflation will reignite, and risk assets like crypto will benefit most.

Hayes compares it to a new type of quantitative easing that subtly raises asset prices while directing capital into politically supported sectors. He believes that crypto is one of the few places this excess money can FLOW without causing social unrest. 

Unlike food or housing, where rising prices hurt the average person, Bitcoin and Ethereum benefit from inflation without creating backlash. Crypto becomes, in his words, the perfect “escape valve.”

Regulation and institutional adoption move in crypto’s favor

Hayes also notes a changing regulatory environment. With growing bipartisan support for crypto, retirement funds opening up to digital assets, and institutional players ramping up their involvement, the market may be on the verge of a new phase of adoption.

Trump’s second presidency, he suggests, could accelerate this trend through tax incentives and clearer regulation. The view that the supply of cryptocurrency is fixed whereas the supply of fiat currency is expanding quickly lies at the core of Hayes’ perspective.