Dow Jones Stagnates as Oil Crashes—Israel-Iran Ceasefire Holds by a Thread
Markets yawn as geopolitical tension takes a breather—but don't get too comfortable.
Flatlining indices, plunging crude: The Dow Jones barely blinked while oil markets panicked, all hinging on a fragile Middle East truce. Traders are holding their breath—and their positions.
Ceasefire limbo: That 'peace' between Israel and Iran? About as stable as a meme coin's price chart. One wrong move could send shockwaves through global markets—again.
Wall Street's shrug: Another day, another geopolitical crisis that somehow doesn’t move the needle for the suits on the trading floor. Maybe they’re too busy counting their AI stock profits.
S&P 500 eyes record highs
The S&P 500 ROSE 1.2% on Tuesday, closing less than 1% from a new all-time high, with gains adding to upside momentum that saw the benchmark index push higher at the start of the week. Easing hostilities between Iran and Israel, and reports that Iran isn’t seeking to block the Strait of Hormuz, a major oil passageway, buoyed markets.
With the S&P 500 on the cusp of a new rally to record highs, investors in other markets have also turned bullish. crypto was broadly higher, and oil prices plunged 7% to trade at levels last seen before the flare-up in Israeli-Iranian tensions, including U.S. attacks on Iran’s nuclear sites.
“Markets barely reacted” to a violation of the Donald Trump–brokered ceasefire, analysts at QCP noted.
Asia Colour – 25 Jun 25
1/ Israel resumed strikes shortly after a fragile ceasefire, but markets barely reacted. Traders seem to have priced in peace or stopped waiting. Risk appetite surged as the @Nasdaq 100 hit record highs and the S&P 500 neared its 2020 peak. Oil also…
Fed chair’s comments and tariffs
In addition to further updates on monetary policy from Jerome Powell as he speaks to Congress on Wednesday, investor focus will also be on upcoming economic data. In particular, data on Personal Consumption Expenditures, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, will be released on Friday.
Investors might want to pay attention to economic data rather than obsess with a rate cut, Carol Schleif, chief market strategist of wealth management provider BMO said. Speaking to CNBC on Wednesday, Schleif noted:
“The obsession with the Fed actually distracts us from looking at the economic data. I’m not sure why the markets are leaning into a cut so much.”
The tariffs front is also crucial, with Bloomberg reporting that the European Union saying it will retaliate if the U.S. holds the baseline 10% tariffs.
