Bitcoin Braces for Impact: NFP Shockwaves, Tariff Tremors, and Government Shutdown Storm
Three economic hurricanes converge on cryptocurrency markets—non-farm payroll data rattles traditional finance, trade tariffs disrupt global liquidity, and potential government shutdowns threaten dollar stability.
The Perfect Storm Brewing
Friday's NFP print could trigger seismic shifts across asset classes. Strong employment numbers might strengthen the dollar—temporarily pressuring Bitcoin—while weak data could accelerate the flight to alternative stores of value.
Tariff Tensions Escalate
New trade barriers threaten to constrict capital flows and destabilize currency markets. Bitcoin historically thrives during international trade disputes as investors seek assets beyond national borders and political manipulation.
Shutdown Specter Looms
Another Washington standoff threatens to freeze government operations. Previous shutdowns saw Bitcoin volumes spike as faith in traditional systems wavered—because nothing says 'stable store of value' like politicians refusing to fund basic operations.
Market veterans watch these developments with grim amusement. While Wall Street analysts hyperventilate over quarterly earnings, Bitcoin continues its relentless march toward mainstream adoption—proving once again that sometimes the best hedge against traditional finance is avoiding traditional finance altogether.
US government shutdown, Donald Trump’s tariffs, and NFP data
Bitcoin price will have three key catalysts this week. The first one is a potential government shutdown in the United States, which will happen on October 1 unless Congress agrees on a spending resolution.
Donald TRUMP will meet with congressional leaders to resolve the deadlock as Republicans and Democrats maintain hardline positions.
If a shutdown occurs, nonessential services like national parks and IRS operations will close, and about 40% of the federal workforce will be furloughed.
The impact on the economy will depend on duration. A prolonged shutdown WOULD weigh on output and could pressure the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.
Another catalyst for Bitcoin will be the ADP and Bureau of Labor Statistics nonfarm payrolls numbers. Economists expect the data to show the labor market remained subdued as companies grappled with Trump’s tariffs.
A weak jobs report would be bullish for Bitcoin, as it would raise the likelihood of interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the last two meetings of the year. However, while the ADP report will be released, the official NFP report may not be published if the government shuts down.
The other important catalyst that may move Bitcoin price is the uncertainty on trade after Trump threatened to impose substantial tariffs on furniture and all movies made outside of the United States. This is in addition to the tariffs on imported pharmaceutical drugs that he threatened last week.
Bitcoin price technical analysis
The daily timeframe chart shows that bitcoin has formed a double-bottom pattern at $108,236, one of the most common bullish reversal patterns in technical analysis.
Bitcoin has moved above the major S/R pivot point of the Murrey Math Lines at $112,500. It has remained above the 100-day exponential moving average and the middle line of the Bollinger Bands.
Bitcoin has moved inside the Ichimoku Cloud indicator. Therefore, the coin will likely continue rising as bulls target the strong pivot reversal point at $118,750. A drop below support at $108,236 would invalidate the bullish forecast.
