MSTR Stock Saga Intensifies: Strategy’s mNAV Plunge Mirrors Bitcoin Price Collapse
MicroStrategy's high-stakes Bitcoin bet faces mounting pressure as both its modified NAV and cryptocurrency values tumble simultaneously.
The Perfect Storm
MSTR's trademark strategy—using corporate treasury to accumulate Bitcoin—hits turbulent waters when the very asset backing its valuation craters. The company's modified net asset value, once hailed as visionary, now mirrors Bitcoin's precipitous decline.
Corporate Crypto Gambit Backfires
While traditional investors diversify, MicroStrategy doubled down—converting billions in corporate reserves into digital gold. Now that bet looks increasingly precarious as crypto winter freezes balance sheets across the sector.
Wall Street's Ironic Twist
Just when traditional finance was starting to take crypto seriously, this correlation play demonstrates why skeptics still call Bitcoin 'digital fool's gold'—proving once again that when crypto sneezes, correlated stocks catch pneumonia.
BTC price has formed a head-and-shoulders pattern | Source: crypto.news
Bitcoin has also formed a giant rising wedge on the weekly chart, meaning that this could be the start of a prolonged bear market.
A prolonged Bitcoin price crash would be negative for Strategy, a company that has become the biggest holder globally. It holds 639,835 coins, currently worth $69 billion. The same coins would be worth $80 billion if it was at its all-time high of $124,200.
Most importantly, the falling BTC price means that the company’s premium has plunged. The closely-watched mNAV multiple has dropped to the year-to-date low of 1.195, down from the November high of 3.4.
The falling mNAV multiple is risky for the company because it uses its premium to raise capital, which it uses to buy Bitcoin. For a long time, Saylor’s rule was that he WOULD not issue shares if the mNAV moved below 2.5. He changed it in August, opening the door for more dilution.
MSTR stock price technical analysis
The daily timeframe chart shows that the MSTR stock price has crashed from a high of $457 in July to $295 today.
It dropped below the important support level at $318, where it failed to MOVE below several times this month.
Worse, the stock is about to FORM the risky death cross pattern as the spread between the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages has narrowed.
A death cross would lead to more downside, potentially to the important support level at $230, its lowest level in April this year. This target is about 25% below the current level.
