Kenneth Rogoff’s 2018 Bitcoin Price Prediction Backfires—Here’s Why He Got It Wrong

Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff just ate crow on his 2018 Bitcoin call—and the crypto crowd isn’t letting him forget it.

Back then, he boldly predicted Bitcoin would crater to $100. Fast-forward to today: it’s trading orders of magnitude higher, leaving Rogoff’s forecast buried in the dust.

Why the miss? Rogoff underestimated Bitcoin’s resilience and its growing appeal as a hedge against monetary chaos. He saw a speculative bubble; the market saw digital gold.

Wall Street’s latest mea culpa—another reminder that traditional finance often misses the plot on disruptive tech. Maybe next time they’ll look beyond their spreadsheets.

TLDR

• Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff previously predicted Bitcoin would crash to $100 before hitting $100,000.

• Bitcoin surpassed $100,000 in December 2024, rising over 1,000% since Rogoff’s prediction.

• Rogoff admitted he underestimated Bitcoin’s role in competing with fiat currencies in the global economy.

• Critics argue that Rogoff failed to grasp Bitcoin’s decentralized nature, which enabled its success at scale.

Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff, known for his bearish stance on Bitcoin, recently admitted that he was wrong in his 2018 prediction. Rogoff had suggested that Bitcoin was more likely to crash to $100 before reaching $100,000. However, the cryptocurrency surpassed the $100,000 mark in December 2024, defying his earlier forecast and showing an impressive rise of over 1,000% since then.

Rogoff, who is also a former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), reflected on his error during a post on X, acknowledging that his views had been overly cautious about Bitcoin’s potential. “What did I miss?” he asked, recognizing the shifts in the market that he had failed to predict.

Key Factors Rogoff Overlooked in Bitcoin 2018 Prediction

Rogoff’s 2018 prediction centered around the belief that government regulation would cause Bitcoin’s price to plummet. However, in the years since, Bitcoin has managed to thrive despite regulatory scrutiny. According to Rogoff, he was overly optimistic about the U.S. government’s willingness to create a reasonable regulatory framework for cryptocurrency.

“I was far too optimistic about the US coming to its senses about sensible cryptocurrency regulation,” he said.

He also missed Bitcoin’s growing role in competing with fiat currencies, particularly in countries where local currencies had been heavily devalued. Rogoff admitted that he did not foresee how bitcoin could become a preferred medium of exchange in the global underground economy.

Bitcoin as a Hedge Against Inflation and Fiat Currency Competition

Bitcoin has increasingly become a hedge against inflation, especially in countries experiencing severe currency devaluation. While the economist had originally seen Bitcoin as a speculative asset, he now recognizes its use as a store of value.

“I did not appreciate how Bitcoin WOULD compete with fiat currencies to serve as the transactions medium of choice,” Rogoff said.

Despite the illicit activities often linked to Bitcoin, such as money laundering, it still constitutes a small fraction of the total money laundered worldwide. This recognition shows that Bitcoin’s real-world applications have evolved, and its role as an alternative financial asset is becoming more apparent.

Crypto Critics Respond to Rogoff’s Change of View

Rogoff’s admission of being wrong about Bitcoin sparked responses from critics in the crypto community. Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, pointed out that Rogoff had failed to recognize that Bitcoin was a decentralized project that drew its strength from people rather than centralized institutions.

Others, like digital asset researcher David Lawant, expressed their gratitude for Rogoff’s earlier writings, claiming that his book, “The Curse of Cash,” had actually pushed them toward Bitcoin.

Matthew Sigel, head of digital assets research at VanEck, ranked Rogoff among the loudest critics of Bitcoin. Sigel noted that Rogoff had prematurely declared Bitcoin’s failure without fully understanding the changing dynamics of the financial system.