XRP ETF Approval Odds Hold at 95% as Ripple Lawsuit Reaches Final Resolution – Bloomberg Analyst Doubles Down

Ripple’s legal saga ends—just as Wall Street warms up to XRP’s ETF potential.

Bloomberg’s top crypto analyst isn’t backing down: A 95% chance of approval stands firm, even as TradFi skeptics scoff at 'yet another crypto pipe dream.'

Here’s why the smart money’s betting on XRP—and why the SEC’s loss might be your gain.

Bonus jab: Meanwhile, gold ETFs gather dust like your grandpa’s stock certificates.

TLDR

• Polymarket sees an 88% chance of XRP ETF approval after the Ripple-SEC lawsuit ends.

• Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas maintains a 95% approval odds, calling the recent market reaction an overreaction.

• Institutional interest in XRP ETFs grows with filings from Grayscale, Bitwise, and others.

• XRP price surged 11.4% following Ripple’s legal victory, boosting market confidence.

XRP ETF approval odds have experienced significant fluctuations following developments in the Ripple-SEC lawsuit. After a sharp drop to 66% yesterday, Polymarket now shows a surge in the likelihood of approval, reaching 88% today. Despite the market’s earlier reaction, Bloomberg’s senior ETF analyst, Eric Balchunas, remains confident in XRP’s chances, maintaining an approval probability of 95%.

SEC’s Stance on Crypto ETFs and Commissioner Crenshaw’s Role

The odds of an XRP ETF approval took a hit after SEC Commissioner Caroline Crenshaw voted against several crypto ETF proposals on July 29. Crenshaw was the only dissenting vote, opposing all 13 crypto-related ETF proposals, while other SEC commissioners supported the motions. This led to a drop in the market’s perception of the XRP ETF approval, as shown by Polymarket’s odds.

However, Eric Balchunas, an expert at Bloomberg, noted that the market’s reaction to Crenshaw’s vote was an overreaction.

Interesting, trades reporting how Polymarket odds of XRP ETF approval went down to 62% after the votes were disclosed showing Crenshaw voting no, but a) she's gonna vote no on EVERYTHING and b) it's meaningless, she's outnumbered = we haven't changed our odds, still at 95%. https://t.co/TamMn8DHVh pic.twitter.com/Ip9G748HrU

— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) August 7, 2025

According to Balchunas, Crenshaw, known for her strong anti-crypto stance, is often outnumbered in votes and her position should not be a deciding factor. “She’s always going to vote no on crypto, so her opposition doesn’t change much,” Balchunas explained. He believes the approval odds should remain high, given that most SEC commissioners support crypto-related ETFs.

Ripple-SEC Legal Victory Boosts XRP ETF Prospects

The end of the Ripple-SEC lawsuit has had a substantial effect on XRP’s market performance. Following the conclusion of the case, XRP’s price surged by 11.4%, reflecting increased market confidence. This legal resolution has enhanced the likelihood of an XRP ETF approval, with many seeing it as a step toward regulatory clarity for the cryptocurrency.

This shift in sentiment has had a direct impact on the probability of an XRP ETF getting approved.

After the lawsuit’s conclusion, Polymarket data shows that XRP ETF approval odds have risen from 62% to 88%, marking a significant improvement. The market is now hopeful that the SEC may approve the ETF by the end of 2025, reflecting a more optimistic outlook on XRP’s future in the financial markets.

Institutional Interest and Potential ETF Filings

With the Ripple-SEC case behind them, several major asset managers have shown interest in launching XRP ETFs. Companies like Bitwise, Grayscale, and WisdomTree have already filed for approval. This growing interest highlights the increasing recognition of XRP as a viable digital asset for institutional investment.

Additionally, speculation has arisen around BlackRock, a key player in the crypto ETF space, potentially filing for an XRP ETF, which could further enhance XRP’s market credibility.

BlackRock currently manages the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) and iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA), two of the largest cryptocurrency ETFs. Although there is no confirmation yet on BlackRock’s involvement with XRP, experts speculate that the end of the Ripple-SEC case may prompt them to explore this opportunity. If BlackRock moves forward with an XRP ETF, it could provide significant institutional backing for the cryptocurrency.