XLM Price Poised for Breakout—$0.30 Support Retest Looms in 2025

Stellar (XLM) teeters on the edge of a make-or-break moment as bulls eye a critical rebound.

Will the $0.30 support hold—or are we staring down another 'crypto winter' special?

The Setup:
After weeks of sideways action, XLM's chart flashes textbook breakout signals. Traders are betting heavy on a retest of the $0.30 zone—a level that’s either a springboard or a trapdoor.

Why It Matters:
Stellar’s been the 'quiet kid' of payments tokens, but a clean bounce here could finally put it back on the institutional radar. Or, you know, deliver another masterclass in false hope—this is crypto, after all.

Bottom Line:
Watch the order books. If volume spikes at $0.30, we’re looking at a potential 2025 sleeper play. If not? Well, at least the 'HODLers' have another story for their grandkids.

TLDR

• Stellar Lumens dropped to $0.4300 after gaining 80 percent in the past week.
• The XLM price is trading far above its 50-day and 100-day moving averages.
• Technical indicators such as RSI and Stochastic show that XLM was recently overbought.
• A mean reversion could push XLM down by 40 percent toward the $0.30 support area.
• XLM has broken out of a descending channel and may retest its previous resistance.

Stellar Lumens has lost momentum after posting an 80% gain within seven days. The XLM token price dropped to $0.4300 on July 15, down 16% from its recent peak. Technical indicators and fundamental weaknesses now point to a potential 40% price correction in the NEAR term.

XRP Price Mirrors Past Correction Patterns

The XLM price Forecast points to a high likelihood of mean reversion as the token trades above its key moving averages. XLM reached $0.5145 last week, far above the 50-day and 100-day moving averages at $0.2900 and $0.2837. When assets rise sharply above such indicators, they often return to those levels.

Stellar showed similar behavior in November, when a sharp rally ended in a prolonged correction. This technical behavior often signals temporary exhaustion in bullish momentum. The current price setup mirrors that historical pattern, suggesting a repeat is possible.

Oscillators like the RSI and Stochastic also point to overbought conditions, which historically precede corrections. These metrics climbed steeply during last week’s rally and are now falling. The XLM Price Forecast aligns with this shift in momentum and points to further downside.

Break-and-Retest Pattern Indicates Possible 40% Decline

XLM has broken above a descending channel that has guided price action since December last year. Typically, assets that break out of such patterns return to retest former resistance as new support. This movement is part of a technical structure known as the break-and-retest pattern.

The upper line of this descending channel sits around the $0.30 region, near the 100-day average. Therefore, a 40% correction WOULD place the price in that support area. This aligns with historical technical behavior observed in XLM price movements.

Although this pattern can be a bullish continuation, the current drop suggests short-term weakness. The XLM Price Forecast maintains that the token could fall before rebounding from support. A MOVE above $0.5155 would invalidate this bearish scenario.

Stablecoin Data and Futures Activity Weigh on XLM Outlook

XLM’s stablecoin growth appears overstated, based on recent data analysis. DeFi Llama initially showed a jump to $652 million in stablecoin assets, but this was misleading. The increase came from reclassifying the Franklin Onchain Money Market Fund with $441 million into Stellar’s totals.

Without that fund, stellar holds $185 million in actual stablecoins, mostly in USDC. This limited organic growth dampens network fundamentals and affects bullish sentiment. It also weakens long-term support for the current price levels.

According to CoinGlass, futures open interest also fell to $495 million from $520 million. Falling open interest often signals reduced trading conviction. The XLM Price Forecast sees this decline as reinforcing the case for a near-term correction.