Sui (SUI) Price on Edge: Massive Token Unlock Threatens Market Stability

Hold onto your wallets—Sui's about to shake things up.

A flood of newly unlocked tokens hits the market today, and traders are bracing for impact. Will SUI's price tank or defy gravity? Here's what you need to know.

The Unlock Effect: Supply Shock or Nothingburger?

Token unlocks can send prices spiraling—or get shrugged off like another empty "institutional adoption" press release. This one's big enough to matter.

Volatility Ahead: Traders Play Defense

Options markets show surging demand for protection. Spot traders are either loading up or running for cover—no in-between.

One thing's certain: today's the day weak hands get shaken out. As always in crypto, the house wins either way.

TLDR

• Sui is currently trading at $2.81 with a 0.58% daily gain and trading volume surged 49.17% to $906.11 million
• A major token unlock of 44 million coins worth $77.35 million occurred on July 1, raising concerns about selling pressure
• Technical analysts see potential breakout above $2.90 resistance with targets at $3.40 and $4.20
• Open Interest in Sui futures dropped from $2.05 billion in May to $1.19 billion, indicating reduced trader appetite
• Price predictions for 2025 vary widely from $2.42 to over $6.18 depending on the forecasting source

Sui is showing mixed signals as the Layer-1 blockchain token trades at $2.81 following a recent token unlock event that has created uncertainty among investors. The token posted a modest 0.58% daily increase while maintaining a weekly gain of 3.39%.

Trading activity has intensified with volume jumping to $906.11 million over 24 hours, representing a 49.17% increase. This surge in volume suggests growing investor attention despite concerns about recent supply additions to the market.

The sui Network executed a scheduled unlock of 44 million coins on July 1, releasing tokens worth approximately $77.35 million into circulation. This unlock was distributed across Series B investors, the Community Reserve, Early Contributors, and the Mysten Labs Treasury.

$SUI Token Unlock Alert!

On July 1, 2025, SUI will unlock 44M SUI tokens (~0.44% of total supply, $77.35M). Split: 19.32M for Series B, 12.63M for Community Reserve, 9.98M for Early Contributors, & 2.07M for Mysten Labs Treasury.
Will demand absorb the supply or will… pic.twitter.com/Sbzo9bu9qY

— Neev crypto (@Neev_Crypto) June 30, 2025

The token release has pushed Sui’s circulating supply to around 3.45 billion tokens, which represents 34.46% of the total supply. More than half of the total supply remains locked, with 5.22 billion tokens yet to be released in future unlock events.

Technical Analysis Points to Key Resistance Level

From a technical perspective, traders are monitoring a critical resistance level at $2.90. Analysts believe a daily close above this price point could trigger a bullish breakout scenario.

The token recently found support in the $2.45 to $2.70 range after bouncing back from these levels. If the $2.90 resistance is broken, technical analysts have identified initial targets at $3.40 with potential extension to $4.20.

However, the token is currently trading below key exponential moving averages on the 8-hour chart. The 50 EMA sits at $2.82, the 100 EMA at $2.98, and the 200 EMA at $3.08.

The MACD indicator is showing bearish signals with the blue MACD line potentially crossing below the red signal line. Red histogram bars below the zero line confirm downward momentum in the short term.

Futures Market Shows Declining Interest

Open Interest in Sui futures has declined from a peak of $2.05 billion in May to $1.19 billion currently. This drop indicates reduced appetite among derivatives traders and typically signals bearish sentiment when not accompanied by positive catalysts.

The token has lost approximately 37% of its value since reaching its peak of $4.29 in May. This decline occurred alongside broader market weakness and geopolitical concerns affecting risk appetite.

Current price action shows Sui hovering between $2.42 and $2.66, which analysts consider a critical short-term support zone. A breakdown below $2.42 could lead to further declines toward $2.09.

Crypto analyst Sonia S. previously covered her SUI position at $4 following May’s hack of the Cetus protocol. Despite short-term concerns, she maintains a positive long-term outlook, stating the project represents a strong Layer-1 with potential for recovery above $4 post-summer.

I sold all my Sui at $4 when the hacking happened with Cetus in May , to avoid the sell off risk of course. But overall I think Sui is a good L1 project and now it’s at a point of accumulation price , eithet low leverage perps or just buy spot , I believe it will go back to $4… pic.twitter.com/rAjc2ZYzbh

— Sonia S.🟧 (@CryptoSoniaS) June 30, 2025

Price forecasts for 2025 show wide variation among different platforms. DigitalCoinPrice projects the token could reach $5.35 to $6.18 by December 2025, while Changelly takes a more conservative approach with predictions of $2.42 as the yearly high.

The Sui ecosystem maintains a Total Value Locked NEAR $2 billion, which some analysts view as providing resilience against price shocks. CEO Evan Cheng has not issued warnings regarding the recent token unlock impact.