Netflix (NFLX) Stock Soars: Wall Street Bets Big on 44% Profit Surge Ahead of Q2 Earnings

Netflix shares are rallying hard—because nothing gets Wall Street hornier than a pre-earnings hype cycle.

Here's why traders are piling in:

The streaming giant's stock is climbing as analysts predict a whopping 44% profit jump. Because apparently, charging more for password sharing was actually a genius move—who knew?

Key drivers:

- Ad-tier adoption quietly printing money

- Content slate stronger than Disney's boardroom morale

- Global subscriber growth defying 'streaming is dead' narratives

But let's be real—this is the same Street that once valued Peloton at $50 billion. Whether the earnings deliver or not, someone's getting rich on the options action.

TLDRs;

• Netflix stock rose 1.21% Monday ahead of Q2 earnings expected July 17.
• Analysts forecast a 44.5% year-over-year earnings surge to $7.05 per share.
• The stock is up 93.3% over the past year, outpacing major indices and competitors.
• Despite a recent downgrade by JPMorgan, analyst sentiment remains broadly bullish.

Netflix stock closed Monday’s trading session at $1,339.13, marking a 1.21% gain as investor enthusiasm grows in the run-up to the company’s second-quarter earnings.

The streaming giant is scheduled to report results on July 17, and Wall Street’s expectations are nothing short of bullish. Analysts project an adjusted earnings per share of $7.05, a sharp 44.5% rise from the $4.88 reported in the same quarter last year.

Stock Close Strong on Market Optimism

Investor confidence appears to be gaining strength, with the intraday chart showing a steady climb throughout the session.

After a dip mid-morning, shares rebounded sharply and sustained those gains well into after-hours trading, where the stock remained nearly flat at $1,339.00. With a market capitalization now sitting at approximately $570 billion, Netflix continues to outperform broader indices and sector peers.

Subscriber Growth Drive Long-Term Momentum

Netflix’s bullish trajectory reflects more than just short-term optimism. Over the past twelve months, the stock has surged an eye-catching 93.3%, far outpacing the S&P 500’s 12.6% rise and the Communication Services Select Sector ETF’s 24.6% gain. This performance is largely attributed to strong subscriber momentum and strategic product diversification.

In 2024 alone, Netflix added 41 million new subscribers, closing the year with nearly 302 million users globally. Although the company has stopped publishing subscriber counts moving forward, the market has already priced in its recent growth streak.

The company’s growing footprint in over 190 countries, along with investments in exclusive content and expansion into gaming, has bolstered its appeal. Its decision to launch an ad-supported subscription tier also appears to be paying off, attracting price-sensitive customers and widening its monetization model. Netflix currently holds 7.5% of total U.S. video viewing time, second only to YouTube, reinforcing its dominance in the streaming space despite fierce competition.

Continued Growth Through 2026

Wall Street continues to back the company’s long-term outlook. For fiscal 2025, analysts forecast a 27.7% rise in adjusted earnings per share, reaching $25.32, while fiscal 2026 projections estimate a further 20.9% climb to $30.60 per share.

These projections highlight strong confidence in Netflix’s ability to scale revenue, even as it adjusts its disclosure practices and competitive landscape.

Analyst Unshaken by JPMorgan Downgrade

Still, not all sentiment is unanimously positive. On May 19, JPMorgan downgraded Netflix from “Overweight” to “Neutral,” triggering a temporary pullback of over 1% in share price.

Yet the broader analyst consensus remains upbeat. Of 45 analysts covering the stock, 28 rate it a “Strong Buy,” three recommend a “Moderate Buy,” and 14 suggest holding. Netflix currently trades above its average price target of $1,196.17, with the highest target on Wall Street sitting at $1,600, implying nearly 21% upside potential from current levels.

As the July 17 earnings date approaches, market watchers will be paying close attention not only to headline numbers, but also to Netflix’s commentary on future growth areas like gaming and international expansion. With momentum clearly on its side, the question now is whether Netflix can deliver the kind of upside surprise investors have come to expect.