Tesla’s Robo-Taxi Flop: Why TSLA Stock Didn’t Budge—And What Comes Next

Tesla’s much-hyped robo-taxi rollout landed with a thud—zero impact on share price. Now what?

Wall Street shrugs as Elon’s ‘autonomous revolution’ stalls at launch. The market’s verdict? Show me the money.

Behind the hype cycle: TSLA investors wanted revenue streams, not vaporware. Another ‘future promise’ fails to move the needle.

Next phase: Watch for margin pressure as Tesla pivots from EV slowdown to unproven robotaxis. Because when growth stutters, distractions get funding.

Cynic’s take: Nothing boosts a stagnant stock like a shiny new narrative—even if the math never adds up.

TLDR

• Tesla stock showed little movement after its robo-taxi launch, remaining stable despite mixed investor reactions
• Q2 delivery numbers due Wednesday expect around 386,000 vehicles, down 13-20% year-over-year
• Senate bill threatens to end EV tax credits by September, which Musk called “utterly insane and destructive”
• Tesla shares down 14% year-to-date as the company faces weak demand and Chinese competition
• Musk recently demonstrated first driverless car delivery near Austin gigafactory

Tesla stock managed to pull off something unexpected after its robo-taxi launch last week. It did absolutely nothing.

Shares barely budged following the much-hyped autonomous vehicle debut. The stock rose less than $2, or 0.5%, after Tesla began taking fare-paying passengers around Austin, Texas without drivers.

Bulls praised the technology breakthrough. Bears pointed to online videos showing car mistakes and questioned how Tesla could scale the service.

In the end, neither side won the day. The robo-taxi launch became neither a major catalyst nor a sell-the-news event.

Tesla shares were down 0.2% in premarket trading Monday at $323.15. The stock has fallen 14% year-to-date as the company battles weak demand and intense Chinese competition.

The robo-taxi calm won’t last long. Tesla faces three major events that could shake up the stock price.

Delivery Numbers Paint Grim Picture

Wednesday brings Tesla’s second-quarter delivery report. Wall Street expects around 386,000 vehicles delivered, down 13% from 444,000 in the same period last year.

Some analysts predict even worse numbers. Current estimates hover closer to 355,000 units, which WOULD represent a 20% year-over-year decline.

The projections started much higher. Wall Street initially expected 500,000 deliveries for the quarter before reality set in.

First-quarter deliveries already fell 13% year-over-year to 336,691 vehicles. The weak performance reflected backlash against CEO Elon Musk’s political activities and general market headwinds.

Tesla has tried fighting back with more affordable cars and a revamped Model Y. But Chinese competitors continue applying pressure in key markets.

Tax Credit Battle Heats Up

Political drama could hurt Tesla’s bottom line. The Senate is pushing a spending bill that would end EV tax credits by September.

That timeline moves faster than the House proposal, which called for eliminating credits by year-end. Many Tesla customers rely on these incentives when buying cars, solar panels, and battery systems.

Musk blasted the legislation on his X platform. He called the Senate bill “utterly insane and destructive” and said it “gives handouts to industries of the past while severely damaging industries of the future.”

The tax credit fight comes as Musk has stepped back from Washington duties. He pledged to spend more time running his businesses after his political involvement sparked customer backlash.

Tesla stock actually ROSE 5.3% after disappointing first-quarter deliveries partly because investors welcomed Musk’s reduced political focus.

Second-quarter earnings will follow delivery numbers by a few weeks. Wall Street expects earnings per share of 44 cents, down from 52 cents in the same quarter last year.

Analysts started 2025 expecting 85 cents per share for the second quarter. Those estimates have dropped as Tesla’s business weakened.

Tesla investors will also look for updates on the company’s next model. Lars Moravy, Tesla’s VP of Vehicle Engineering, said during the first-quarter call that new models are “still planning to release this year.”

Details remain scarce about the new vehicle. It might take positive news about the model to lift shares if deliveries and earnings disappoint again.

Musk recently showed off Tesla’s autonomous progress with a driverless delivery NEAR the Austin gigafactory. A video showed a Tesla navigating public streets with no human in either front seat.

The CEO expects millions of Teslas operating fully autonomously by the second half of 2025. But he provided no details about the software or hardware used in the delivery demonstration.

Tesla shares were trading lower Monday as investors await Wednesday’s delivery numbers and prepare for potential tax credit changes.