Bitcoin (BTC) at Make-or-Break Moment: Fed Dot Plot Looms as Traders Eye Critical Resistance

All eyes on the Fed as Bitcoin teeters at key technical levels.

The dot plot’s back—and so is the market’s existential dread. BTC traders are glued to charts while Jerome Powell & Co. drop their latest economic Rorschach test. Will this be the catalyst that finally cracks resistance? Or just another ‘wait and see’ snoozefest from the suits in DC?

Meanwhile, crypto’s OG asset keeps flirting with breakout territory—because nothing says ‘hedge against monetary policy’ like a volatile digital commodity. Wall Street analysts are already sharpening their ‘I told you so’ takes either way.

Pro tip: When the Fed speaks, grab popcorn. And maybe a stress ball.

TLDR

• Bitcoin traders are focusing on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate dot plot rather than the rate decision itself, with the announcement scheduled for Wednesday at 18:00 UTC
• BTC price remains stuck below $110,000 resistance with key overhead resistance at $112,000 that hasn’t been broken since June 5
• Fed interest rate cut odds for this week have dropped to less than 0.1% with rates expected to stay between 4.25%-4.50%
• A hawkish dot plot showing fewer rate cuts could pressure bitcoin prices while a dovish surprise could boost crypto markets
• Key support levels to watch include $100,000 psychological level and $92,000-$93,000 cluster if downside momentum builds

The Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee will announce its interest rate decision Wednesday at 18:00 UTC. Most traders expect rates to remain unchanged between 4.25% and 4.50%.

The CME Group’s FedWatch tool shows a 99.9% probability that rates will stay the same. Only a 0.1% chance exists for a 0.25% rate cut.

Bitcoin traders are looking beyond the rate decision itself. They’re focused on the Fed’s interest rate DOT plot, which shows each official’s rate projections.

The dot plot could move markets depending on how many rate cuts officials expect. XBTO, a crypto trading firm, said fewer than two projected cuts would strengthen the “higher-for-longer” narrative.

A dovish surprise showing more rate cuts could weaken the dollar and boost crypto demand. Until then, traders are waiting for clear signals from the Fed.

Fed Pressure and Market Expectations

President Donald TRUMP has repeatedly called for lower interest rates. This puts pressure on Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who will speak after the rate announcement.

Market participants will watch Powell’s language closely. Any shift in tone could impact crypto prices.

Rate cut expectations have already fallen this year. They dropped from 100 basis points to just 50 basis points currently.

The change comes from a strong job market and inflation above the Fed’s 2% target. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could reduce expected cuts to just 25 basis points.

Private wealth manager Swissblock said a dovish Powell would fuel Bitcoin bulls. They also noted that bitcoin funding rates turned negative after Israel-Iran tensions escalated.

Technical Levels and Market Structure

Bitcoin failed another attempt to break above $110,000 on Tuesday. The price hasn’t closed above $112,000 since June 5.

BTC must flip the $112,000 all-time high into support to continue higher. First, it needs to reclaim the $108,000 psychological level.

A major supply zone sits between $109,000 and $110,500. Bulls need to clear this area for further gains.

On the downside, bears want to keep $106,000 as resistance. Key support lies at $104,000 where the 50-day moving average sits.

The previous range low at $102,800 from Friday provides another support level. Below that, the $100,000 psychological level becomes crucial.

The 100-day and 200-day moving averages at $95,800 and $94,600 offer deeper support. Liquidation data shows major clusters NEAR $92,000-$93,000.

Polymarket data shows a 42% chance bitcoin drops to $100,000 by June 30. A 23% chance exists for new highs above $115,000.

Crypto trading firm QCP noted continued institutional buying. Metaplanet and spot bitcoin ETFs have recorded seven straight weeks of inflows.

The Binance liquidation heatmap shows the biggest cluster near $112,000. Breaking this level could trigger short squeezes toward $114,000.