XRP Lawsuit Showdown: John Deaton Predicts 70% Settlement Odds as Final Chapter Looms

Ripple''s legal marathon may finally be sprinting toward a finish line. Crypto attorney John Deaton just placed a 70% probability on the SEC case ending in settlement—not with a bang, but with a handshake (and likely a nine-figure check).

The stakes? Only the regulatory future of the third-largest cryptocurrency. The SEC''s reputation for ''regulation by enforcement'' faces its make-or-break moment as Ripple''s army of retail holders—Deaton''s clients—cheer from the sidelines.

Wall Street analysts are already placing bets on how quickly banking partners will flip the ''on'' switch for XRP transactions if the case settles. Spoiler: faster than a hedge fund dumping memecoins after a 10% dip.

TLDR

• Ripple and the SEC have filed a joint motion to settle the long-running XRP lawsuit.
• The proposed agreement would unlock $125 million from escrow, with $50 million going to the SEC.
• Attorney John Deaton predicts a 70 percent chance that Judge Analisa Torres will approve the settlement.
• Deaton believes the SEC should have acknowledged past legal criticism in the filing.
• Legal experts question whether the arguments presented are strong enough to reverse earlier rulings.

The long-standing XRP lawsuit may be nearing its final chapter as Ripple and the SEC submitted a joint motion to settle. The proposed agreement would unlock $125 million from escrow, of which $50 million goes to the SEC and $75 million returns to Ripple. The motion aims to prevent further delays, appeals, or extended litigation in the XRP lawsuit.

XRP Lawsuit Nears Settlement Says Deaton

Ripple and the SEC have battled in court for over four years, with both sides presenting extensive arguments and evidence. Now, they appear ready to conclude the XRP lawsuit by agreeing to a civil penalty and a return of funds. If approved, this deal could finally end one of the most high-profile crypto regulatory cases to date.

Attorney John Deaton estimates a 70% chance that Judge Analisa Torres will approve the joint settlement motion in the XRP lawsuit. He responded to critics by clarifying that he did not expect praise from the court in the filing. Instead, he believed the SEC should have acknowledged previous rulings that labelled its conduct as overly aggressive and inconsistent.

Someone posted a comment that said “we get it: you and @freddyriz believe @Ripple and the @SECGov should’ve kissed Judge Torres’ ass more.

That’s not it. In fact, I believe there’s a 70% chance she grants the relief requested and I’ll discuss it more in detail tomorrow. 👇… https://t.co/QXf65N87dR

— John E Deaton (@JohnEDeaton1) June 14, 2025

Legal Experts Raise Questions About SEC’s Strategy

Judge Netburn previously stated that the SEC lacked a faithful allegiance to the law in the XRP lawsuit. Some legal experts expected the SEC’s filing to reflect on this and provide justification for settling now. They also pointed out the emergence of proposed crypto laws like the Clarity Act and Genius Act as context.

Fred Rispoli, another attorney watching the case, questioned the relevance of the injunction if a waiver could simply override it. He noted that Judge Torres may need stronger arguments to justify reversing earlier decisions in the XRP lawsuit. Similarly, former SEC official Marc Fagel said that policy changes and elections are not sufficient legal reasons to settle.

Ripple’s Competitive Position at Stake

Ripple’s legal team argued that the company WOULD suffer a disadvantage if restricted while competitors operate under more clarity. The XRP lawsuit continues to impact Ripple’s ability to partner with banks and other institutions, as they are hesitant about legal uncertainty. Meanwhile, competitors like Circle gain ground as regulators ease up on others in the sector.

Analysts believe that the judge may still approve the deal despite the perceived weaknesses in the filing. As the XRP lawsuit nears a possible conclusion, Ripple’s future could finally become clearer. This outcome could also influence how future crypto cases are approached by regulators and companies alike.