Nebius Group ($NBIS) Q1 Earnings: Wall Street Holds Its Breath—Again

Tech investors eye Nebius’ Q1 report like crypto traders watching a stablecoin peg—hoping for the best, bracing for the usual volatility.

Behind the numbers: Can the cloud upstart justify its premium valuation, or will this be another ’growth over profits’ theater? Spoiler: Analysts still can’t decide if it’s the next AWS or just another IaaS pretender.

Cynical take: If ’cautious optimism’ had a Nasdaq ticker, hedge funds would’ve shorted it to oblivion by now.

TLDR

• NBIS closed at $37.32 on May 16, up 4.27% ahead of its Q1 2025 earnings on May 20
• Zacks forecasts a $0.45 loss per share and $63.8M in revenue, with no signal of an earnings beat
• New data centers and GPU deployments across the US and Europe drive AI infrastructure growth
• Toloka and Avride platforms see strong momentum, boosting diversification and GenAI potential
• Margin pressure, macro concerns, and competition from tech giants weigh on near-term outlook

Nebius Group N.V. (NASDAQ: NBIS) stock climbed 4.27% to close at $37.32 on May 16.

Nebius Group N.V. ($NBIS)

The company is set to report its first-quarter 2025 earnings before the market opens on May 20. Despite strong AI tailwinds, analysts project a net loss of $0.45 per share on revenues of $63.8 million. Estimates have trended slightly lower over the past two months.

The current Wall Street consensus estimate for $NBIS (Nebius Group N.V.) Q1 2025 earnings is an EPS loss of $0.45, with revenue expected around $63.8 million.

These are the standard analyst estimates, not the crowd-sourced “whisper” numbers, and they’ve remained steady over the…

— Ask Perplexity (@AskPerplexity) May 17, 2025

The stock carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) with an Earnings ESP of -7.87%, meaning a surprise beat is unlikely this quarter.

Infrastructure Expansion and Product Innovation

Amsterdam-based Nebius is aggressively expanding its AI-native cloud infrastructure to meet demand for high-performance machine learning workloads. Its flagship platform, Nebius, forms the Core of this effort, combining owned and colocation capacity across regions.

In March, the company unveiled a 300 MW data center project in New Jersey, with the first phase set to launch by summer 2025. The same month, it announced new capacity at its Kansas City site, expected online by Q2-end. Nebius is also expanding into Europe with a new colocation deployment in Keflavik, Iceland.

This footprint growth supports the company’s ambition to compete with cloud leaders like Microsoft Azure, AWS, and Google Cloud.

Diversified AI Offerings Fuel Revenue Potential

Beyond its CORE cloud services, Nebius is driving top-line growth through specialized platforms. Toloka, the AI development toolkit, delivered 140% year-over-year revenue growth in 2024, fueled by a platform revamp tailored to complex GenAI tasks. The company is also scaling TripleTen, its edtech arm, and Avride, its autonomous vehicle technology.

Contract wins in the Avride segment and broader demand for AI inference services via its AI Studio platform may contribute positively to Q1 performance.

Valuation and Competitive Landscape

While NBIS trades at a Price/Book ratio of 2.59x—below the industry average of 4.12x—this discount reflects execution risk and rising competition. Giants like Amazon, Microsoft, and Alphabet hold significant advantages in cloud scale and market reach. Despite this, NBIS stock has surged 161.16% over the past year and 34.73% year-to-date.

Recent underperformance—down 19.5% over the past three months—mirrors investor caution amid macro uncertainty and margin pressures tied to expansion.

Hold Rating as Growth Meets Cost Pressure

With margin pressure persisting and competitive headwinds in play, the near-term outlook for Nebius is tempered. Still, strong growth in its AI offerings and infrastructure investments present long-term promise. For now, Zacks maintains a Hold rating, signaling that investors should monitor Q1 results before making fresh moves.