Crypto and Stock Futures Soar as U.S. Inflation Cools to 2.7% in November, Defying Forecasts

Inflation Takes a Dive—Markets Take Flight

Forget the doom-and-gloom forecasts. The latest Consumer Price Index reading just delivered a shock to the system—the good kind. With inflation cooling to 2.7% in November, a figure that landed squarely below the whisper numbers on Wall Street, risk assets got the all-clear signal they'd been waiting for.

The Immediate Reaction: A Risk-On Rampage

Digital assets and equity futures didn't just tick up—they launched. Bitcoin ripped past key resistance levels, while major altcoins followed suit in a classic relief rally. Over in traditional markets, S&P and Nasdaq futures gapped higher at the open, painting screens green from trading desks to retail apps. It was a textbook example of capital chasing yield the moment macroeconomic headwinds appeared to ease.

Why This Number Changes the Game

This isn't just another data point. Hitting 2.7% inches the Fed closer to its elusive target, shifting the entire narrative around interest rates. The perpetual debate pivots from "how many more hikes" to "when does the pivot begin?" For crypto, often slammed as a purely speculative inflation hedge, the move validates its sensitivity to macro liquidity conditions—it's front-running the potential for cheaper money.

The Cynical Take

Let's be real—the same analysts who were preaching caution last week are now scrambling to upgrade their price targets. It's a familiar dance on the Street: fear sells on the way down, but FOMO fuels the commissions on the way back up.

Looking Ahead: Sustained Momentum or a Short Squeeze?

The initial surge is explosive, but the real test is sustainability. Does this mark the start of a genuine macro-driven bull run, or is it just a massive short squeeze fuelled by pent-up demand? Watch trading volume and institutional flow data in the coming days for the answer. One thing's certain—the inflation bogeyman just got a little less scary, and the market is celebrating like it's 2021.

TLDR

• November CPI rose 2.7% annually, below the 3.1% forecast and down from September’s 3.0%
• Core CPI increased 2.6% year-over-year, also under the expected 3.1% rise
• October’s inflation report was canceled due to the 43-day government shutdown earlier this year
• Both readings remain above the Federal Reserve’s 2% inflation target
• Markets price in only 25% chance of a Fed rate cut in January 2026

Inflation in the United States slowed more than economists predicted in November. The Bureau of Labor Statistics released new data Thursday showing consumer prices ROSE at a slower pace than anticipated.

BREAKING: November CPI inflation unexpectedly FALLS to 2.7%, below expectations of 3.1%.

Core CPI inflation FALLS to 2.6%, below expectations of 3.0%.

This marks the biggest drop in US inflation since March 2025.

Inflation was WELL below expectations in November.

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) December 18, 2025

The Consumer Price Index climbed 2.7% compared to November 2024. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had expected a 3.1% increase. The reading came in lower than September’s 3.0% rise, which was the most recent available data point.

Core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, increased 2.6% year-over-year in November. This figure also fell short of the 3.1% forecast from economists. Core inflation is watched closely by policymakers because it removes volatile price swings from the equation.

The November report marks the first inflation data released since the government shutdown ended. October’s scheduled CPI report was canceled after the Bureau of Labor Statistics could not collect complete data during the 43-day shutdown earlier this year.

The incomplete data collection creates some uncertainty around the numbers. Goldman Sachs noted that collecting prices only in the second half of November could push readings lower. Holiday sales typically begin around mid-November, causing goods prices to drop sharply.

Data Collection Returns to Normal Schedule

Thursday’s release represents the last major economic report affected by the altered schedule from the government shutdown. The November jobs report came out Tuesday, showing job creation exceeded expectations while unemployment hit a four-year high.

Monthly jobs reports and inflation data will return to their regular release dates going forward. The December jobs report is scheduled for January 9, 2026, back to its typical Friday morning slot.

Both headline and CORE inflation remain above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. The central bank aims for 2% inflation as measured by the core personal consumption expenditures index. September’s core PCE data, released earlier this month, showed prices up 2.8% annually.

Fed Rate Cut Odds Remain Low

Jeffrey Roach, chief economist for LPL Financial, said inflation stays above target but should be temporary. He expects pricing pressures to ease as demand cools in coming months.

Bank of America economists wrote before the data release that goods inflation should remain sticky due to tariffs. They predict services inflation will soften partly because of health insurance costs.

The mixed signals in inflation data will likely keep the Federal Reserve from cutting rates at its January meeting. Traders currently see only a 25% chance of a rate cut next month.

The Fed cut rates by 0.25% last week, bringing its key lending rate to a range of 3.5% to 3.75%. This marks the lowest level since 2022. The central bank reduced rates at three consecutive meetings to end 2025.

Fed members showed division on the recent rate cut decision. Three officials formally dissented from last week’s move. Several others expressed reservations through their policy projections.

The Fed’s latest forecasts suggest only one more rate cut in 2026. The November inflation data came in below September’s reading of 3.0% for both headline and core measures.