K33 Report Reveals: Long-Term Bitcoin Holder Sell Pressure Nears Saturation Point

Long-term Bitcoin holders are running out of coins to sell—and the market's about to feel the squeeze.

The supply shock is coming

Fresh analysis from K33 Research paints a clear picture: the traditional sell pressure from Bitcoin's most steadfast investors is hitting its limits. These aren't the weak hands that fold at the first sign of volatility; they're the veterans who've weathered multiple cycles. Their wallets are getting lighter, not because they've lost faith, but simply because they've already cashed out a significant portion of their long-held stash.

What happens when the selling stops?

It's basic economics. When a major source of sell-side liquidity dries up, even modest buying demand can exert disproportionate upward pressure on price. The market's foundation is shifting from distribution to accumulation, setting the stage for a potential supply crunch. Think of it as a slow-motion catalyst waiting for a spark.

A cynical note for the traditionalists

While Wall Street debates basis points and Fed minutes, Bitcoin's on-chain mechanics are quietly executing a different playbook—one that doesn't require a central bank's permission or a quarterly earnings beat. It's a reminder that sometimes, the most powerful market force isn't a hedge fund's thesis, but the simple, silent exhaustion of sellers.

TLDR

• K33 reports 1.6M BTC from long-term holders has re-entered circulation since 2024.

• Institutional liquidity has enabled long-term Bitcoin holders to exit at high prices.

• K33 expects Bitcoin sell-side pressure to ease by 2026 as early holders stop selling.

• Bitcoin’s underperformance in 2025 is partly attributed to large holder sales.

A new report from K33, a research and brokerage firm, suggests that sell-side pressure from long-term Bitcoin holders is nearing its limit. Since 2024, approximately 1.6 million BTC has been reactivated and sold, signaling a significant distribution phase. This is one of the largest sell-offs by long-term holders in Bitcoin’s history, according to K33’s head of research, Vetle Lunde.

Lunde argues that the decline in long-term bitcoin supply is not due to routine wallet movements, but rather a deliberate attempt by early holders to cash out at favorable prices. He attributes this reactivation largely to the growth of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs and the increasing demand from corporate treasuries, both of which have provided liquidity for large Bitcoin sales.

Major Transactions Highlight Ongoing Distribution

The K33 report highlights a series of large Bitcoin transactions that support the theory of intentional selling. These include an 80,000 BTC sale by Galaxy in July, a swap of 24,000 BTC for ether in August, and another sale of roughly 11,000 BTC between October and November.

Such significant movements of Bitcoin, according to K33, have contributed to Bitcoin’s underperformance throughout 2025.

The report points to the availability of institutional liquidity as a key factor in enabling these large transactions. With Bitcoin now more integrated into the financial system through ETFs and corporate purchases, early holders have been able to sell large amounts of Bitcoin at higher prices, reducing the concentration of ownership and establishing new cost bases for a large portion of the circulating supply.

Bitcoin Sell-Side Pressure Set to Ease by 2026

Looking ahead, K33 anticipates that the sell-side pressure from long-term holders will subside in 2026. Lunde forecasts that after two years of substantial selling, the supply held by long-term holders will stabilize. The current level of around 12.16 million BTC is expected to increase as early holders cease selling and the market shifts toward net buy-side demand.

The firm in addition notes that Bitcoin’s underperformance in the final quarter of 2025 could result in a portfolio rebalancing by institutional investors.

Historically, Bitcoin tends to MOVE in the opposite direction of its performance in the prior quarter. This means that after Q4’s struggles, Bitcoin could experience renewed inflows in late December and early January, potentially boosting its price.

K33 Predicts a New Demand Era for Bitcoin

As the supply from long-term holders stabilizes, K33 predicts that Bitcoin’s price could see a resurgence driven by sustained buy-side demand.

The report mentions that, while the supply reactivation cycle typically peaks NEAR market tops, Bitcoin’s increasing integration into mainstream finance could provide a more stable demand environment.

K33’s research indicates that the next phase for Bitcoin could be defined by increasing demand from institutional investors and retail buyers, which may offer a more durable foundation for price growth in the coming years.