Fed Rate Cut Bets Hang in the Balance as Mixed Jobs Data Sows Market Confusion

Markets are scrambling for direction after the latest jobs report delivered a classic 'good news is bad news' headache for traders.

The Data Dilemma

Numbers from the labor market painted a conflicting picture—strong enough to question economic fragility, yet soft in pockets that keep hopes for Federal Reserve easing alive. This split-personality report has analysts and algorithms alike parsing every decimal point, trying to guess the Fed's next move. The central bank's infamous data-dependency now looks less like a strategy and more like a hostage situation.

Traders on Tenterhooks

Every economic indicator has become a potential trigger, swinging futures and fueling volatility. The old market mantra of 'don't fight the Fed' has morphed into 'try to outguess the Fed,' a far more exhausting—and expensive—proposition. It's the financial equivalent of watching a suspense thriller where the director keeps changing the ending.

Forward Guidance Fog

The path forward remains shrouded in uncertainty. Each speech from a Fed official is dissected for hints, turning monetary policy into a form of high-stakes Kremlinology. Meanwhile, portfolios twist in the wind, waiting for clarity that may not come until the moment the decision drops. In today's markets, patience isn't just a virtue—it's a rapidly depreciating asset.

One cynical take? The only thing rising faster than market anxiety might be the consulting fees for economists hired to explain it all.

TLDR

• Bitcoin rose 2% to $87,274 in Asian trading hours as regional stock markets edged higher on Wednesday
• US November jobs report showed 64,000 jobs added with unemployment rate climbing to 4.6%, the highest since 2021
• Nasdaq closed up 0.2% on Tuesday while S&P 500 fell 0.2% and Dow dropped 0.6% or 300 points
• Tesla stock hit a new record high after CEO Elon Musk announced robotaxi testing without human safety drivers
• Markets are waiting for Thursday’s US inflation data to gauge Federal Reserve rate cut expectations for 2026

Bitcoin climbed nearly 2% during Asian trading hours on Wednesday, reaching $87,274 as investors analyzed a mixed US jobs report. Regional equity markets showed modest gains while traders prepared for Thursday’s inflation data release.

Asian stock markets moved higher on Wednesday morning. South Korea’s KOSPI gained 0.6% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng added 0.3% as technology shares attracted buyers after recent declines.

US Jobs Data Shows Mixed Employment Picture

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics released delayed November employment figures on Tuesday. The report showed 64,000 jobs added during the month, exceeding economist expectations.

BREAKING: The US economy added 64,000 jobs in November, above expectations of 50,000.

The unemployment rate ROSE to 4.6%, above expectations of 4.5%.

Unemployment in the US is now at its highest level since September 2021.

The labor market is still weakening.

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) December 16, 2025

However, the unemployment rate increased to 4.6%, marking the highest level since 2021. The October report was also revised to show a loss of 105,000 jobs, linked to government spending cuts.

Retail sales data for October came in flat, slightly below what economists had forecast. The delayed economic releases came after a recent government shutdown slowed data collection efforts.

The jobs report has intensified debate about Federal Reserve policy direction for 2026. Traders are currently betting on two rate cuts from the Fed next year as policymakers balance labor market concerns against inflation pressures.

Akshat Siddhant, lead quant analyst at Mudrex, pointed to bitcoin exchange reserves sitting at record lows as supporting upward price movement. He said Bitcoin could advance toward $90,000 if momentum continues, with support gradually moving higher to the $86,000 zone.

Nic Puckrin, investment analyst and co-founder of Coin Bureau, warned that year-end tax-loss selling could add pressure to Bitcoin prices. He identified the ETF cost basis around $83,800 as a key support level, with additional support near $81,200.

Puckrin said selling pressure could push bitcoin below $80,000 if the sell-off deepens. He noted many investors are currently sitting on losses and using tax-loss selling strategies.

Stock Market Performance Varies Across Sectors

US stock markets showed divergent performance on Tuesday. The Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.2% while the S&P 500 dropped 0.2% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 0.6%, losing 300 points.

Tesla shares closed at a new record high, their first in a year. The gains came after CEO Elon Musk announced the company was testing robotaxis without human safety drivers.

The robotaxi news also boosted related stocks in Hong Kong. Pony AI and WeRide each climbed more than 3% during Wednesday’s Asian trading session.

Healthcare and energy sectors weighed on broader market performance on Tuesday. Ford announced it WOULD take a $19.5 billion charge as part of a shift away from electric vehicle production.

Other major cryptocurrencies also posted gains during Asian hours. Ether rose 0.5% to $2,948 while XRP jumped 3.4% to $1.93. The total crypto market capitalization increased 1.3% to $3.05 trillion.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 added 0.3% and the Topix gained 0.1% after trade data showed exports exceeded expectations. The data indicated overseas demand is supporting economic growth heading into year-end.

Markets are watching the Bank of Japan ahead of Friday’s policy decision. Traders are leaning toward a rate increase as the yen remains weak and inflation stays elevated.

The Wall Street Journal reported that President Donald TRUMP is scheduled to interview Fed Governor Christopher Waller on Wednesday for the chair role. Thursday’s consumer price index data will provide additional insight into inflation trends and potential Fed policy moves.